Investors are watching Carvana (NYSE: CVNA | CVNA Price Prediction) ahead of Q1 2026 results due after the close on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. With a 5-for-1 forward stock split teed up behind the print, this report carries unusual weight.
Management signed off on the split in March, when shares traded near $297, down from a 52-week high near $486 in January. Carvana now changes hands for around $417, after a 48.2% rally in the past month, and is up 40.4% since the split announcement.
Q1 2026 Setup Versus Year-Ago Comparables
The baseline to clear is steep. Q4 2025 delivered $5.603 billion in revenue (+57.96% YoY), EPS of $4.22 (including a $618 million non-cash tax benefit), and 163,522 retail units sold, up 43% year over year. Full-year 2025 revenue crossed $20 billion for the first time, and the company joined the S&P 500. CEO Ernie Garcia reiterated the target of 3 million retail units at a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030 to 2035.
| Metric | Q1 2025 Actual | Q4 2025 Actual | Mgmt. Q1 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.232B | $5.603B | Sequential unit growth implied |
| EPS | $1.51 | $4.22 | Not guided |
| Retail Units | 133,898 | 163,522 | Sequential increase |
| Adj. EBITDA | $488M | $511M | Sequential increase |
Analyst sentiment is 17 Buys versus one Sell. Barclays and JPMorgan recently reiterated their Buy ratings, and William Blair projected that Carvana would beat consensus estimates for revenue and unit sales. The current consensus target is $425.32.
What Needs to Show Up to Validate the Split
Investors will be watching three things. First, retail unit growth. Carvana has strung together 41% to 46% year-over-year unit growth in every quarter of 2025, and management guided to a sequential gain from Q4’s 163,522. Anything softer would be read as early demand fatigue. Second, per-unit economics. SG&A per retail unit fell to $3,834 in Q4 from $4,319 a year earlier, and investors expect that compression to continue even as ADESA integrations scale. Third, the Root (NASDAQ: ROOT) insurance partnership milestone announced in April. Q1 will only partially reflect that, but commentary on attach rates and the Root warrant mark matters.
Investors should also listen for tone on tariffs, reconditioning costs at newer facilities, and the six to eight new ADESA integrations planned for 2026, with first full buildouts starting construction in Q2 2026 at $30 to $35 million per site. The skeptics are loud. Reddit sentiment skews 87.5% bearish, insiders ran a coordinated April 1 liquidation totaling roughly $9 million, and the Gotham City Research allegations from January 2026 still linger. Debt remains heavy at $4.83 billion plus a $2.23 billion tax receivable agreement liability.
The First Chance to Back Up the Signal
Splits change sentiment, accessibility, and employee equity mechanics while leaving fundamentals untouched. Shareholders vote May 5, with split-adjusted trading beginning May 7 at a post-split price near $83. Approving a split was a confidence signal. Q1 is the first chance to back that up with numbers. If units and margins both expand sequentially, the bull case gets louder. If either slips, the skeptics get a quarter’s worth of ammunition.
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