We Backed Archer Aviation Over Joby Aviation a Year Ago. Here’s Why We Were Wrong.

A year ago, 24/7 Wall St. argued that Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR | ACHR Price Prediction) was the smarter eVTOL bet over Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY). Both have reported Q4 2025 results, and the scoreboard tells a different story than we expected. Time to own the call.

The Original Thesis, and What Actually Happened

The April 28, 2025 piece leaned on Archer’s leaner outsourced model, Anduril defense partnership, United Airlines backing, Stellantis manufacturing deal, and roughly 90% FAA compliance on Midnight versus 80% at Joby. The valuation looked friendlier too. One year later, the stock that the piece was skeptical about crushed the one it favored.

Joby stopped being a pre-revenue story. The Blade passenger business acquisition drove Q4 revenue of $30.84 million against a $16.5 million consensus, and management guided full-year 2026 revenue of $105 million to $115 million. Dubai exclusivity, the Uber app integration, Toyota’s capital, and the 700,000+ sq ft Dayton, Ohio facility gave investors something tangible to underwrite. CEO JoeBen Bevirt framed it plainly: “2026 will mark a key inflection point for Joby.”

Archer kept executing, but mostly on paper. Revenue was $300,000 for all of 2025, and the company only offered EBITDA guidance, signaling a Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $160 million to $180 million. To keep the runway alive, Archer raised $1.8 billion in gross proceeds across three registered direct offerings. The certification milestone was real, with Archer becoming the first eVTOL maker to hit 100% FAA acceptance of all 797 Means of Compliance. Investors simply prized Joby’s paying customers over Archer’s paperwork.

eVTOL enthusiasm cooled hard. Joby is down 30.7% year-to-date, even after last year’s run. Reddit sentiment confirms the shift, with ACHR discussion compressing to 54 (neutral) on November 16 before a modest recovery. Rate uncertainty, certification timeline skepticism, and visible dilution at both names have compressed multiples across the sector.

Revisiting the Pillars

Defense optionality held up for Archer; the Anduril and Palantir tie-ups remain genuine differentiators. The Stellantis and United angles did not translate into revenue fast enough. The “faster certification” argument was correct on the letter, wrong on what the market rewarded, which was commercial traction.

The right framework for 2025 and 2026 was revenue visibility, not compliance percentage. Joby bought its way into commercial operations while Archer bought certification optics. For a patient investor betting on 2030 urban air mobility, Archer’s approximately $2.0 billion liquidity and $10.94 analyst target still give the long thesis a pulse. Anyone underwriting the next 12 months may want to favor Joby’s cash-generating flywheel, acknowledge the dilution overhang, and disregard the original verdict.