OpenAI Hit a Speed Bump. Here’s Why Nvidia’s Long-Term Story Is Still Intact

Bloomberg’s report that OpenAI is missing internal targets sent OpenAI-linked names lower, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) caught the chop. I’ve watched NVDA since 2010, and headlines like this come and go. The thesis does not.

OpenAI is one customer. Nvidia’s $62.3 billion in Q4 FY2026 Data Center revenue, up 75% year over year, is spread across every hyperscaler, sovereign buyer, and enterprise inference workload on the planet.

The capex backstop is locked in. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) ran Q2 capex of ~$30 billion. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) guided 2026 capex to $175 to $185 billion. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) plans about $200 billion. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) guided $115 to $135 billion and signed a multiyear deal for millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. That is roughly $600 billion in committed AI infrastructure spend, none of it pegged to one lab’s quarterly miss.

The short-term risk is real. Reddit sentiment on NVDA flipped to a bearish 34 reading this morning, and Polymarket pegs today’s down probability at 0.76. Day traders will trade the OpenAI headline.

Long term, NVDA still trades at a forward P/E of 27 with a consensus target of $268.61 against $216.61. Watch the Q1 FY2027 report, guided to ~$78.0 billion. If Blackwell and Rubin keep ramping into that $600 billion capex wall, one bad quarter at one customer does not break this story.

I’ll be frank. I think OpenAI made some bad bets on glitzy consumer facing experiences that earned them PR, but not customers, especially big ones relative to Anthropic. They have since refocused and that will begin to show up in their results again. But even if it didn’t, there’s always another buyer of NVDA chips…