Investors are watching Tempus AI (NASDAQ:TEM | TEM Price Prediction) ahead of first-quarter results due after the close tomorrow. The stock burst into investor consciousness in January 2025 after Nancy Pelosi disclosed a position, ran past $100, and has since shed nearly half its value.
From Pelosi Halo to Show-Me Story
Pelosi’s market-beating track record has turned her trades into Buffett-style signals, and Tempus rode that wave. The fundamentals briefly justified the enthusiasm. Q4 2025 revenue jumped 83% YoY to $367.21 million, the Diagnostics segment grew 121.6%, and adjusted EBITDA flipped positive at $12.89 million. CEO Eric Lefkofsky said “we’re poised for a phenomenal 2026.”
Markets disagreed. Shares fell 7.32% on the Q4 release and slid 20.65% over the next 30 days, badly trailing the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ). TEM is now down 6.86% YTD at $54.49, though it has bounced 16.95% in the past month.
Consensus and 2026 Anchors
| Metric | Figure | YoY Context |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 Revenue (actual) | $1.27B | +83.4% |
| FY 2025 EPS (actual) | -$0.61 | n/a |
| FY 2026 Revenue (guide) | ~$1.59B | ~25% |
| FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA (guide) | ~$65M | positive inflection |
No Q1 2026 consensus EPS or revenue figure was provided in our data set, so management’s full-year guide is the cleanest anchor for tomorrow.
What I’ll Be Watching
Three things matter most. First, adjusted EBITDA. Q4 was the first positive quarter, and Q3 2025 was a slim $1.48 million. Another positive quarter would validate the path to the $65 million full-year EBITDA target. A relapse would gut the recovery thesis.
Second, the data business. Lefkofsky guided Q1 2026 Insights growth of roughly 40%, with net revenue retention at 126% and total contract value above $1.1 billion. You should look for confirmation that pharma demand is broadening across more customers.
Third, MRD volumes. Tempus ran ~4,700 MRD tests in Q4, up 56% sequentially, with management noting only about 5% of the sales force is selling it. Any acceleration here is the cleanest read on the next leg of growth.
Also worth a glance: oncology unit growth (29% in Q4), ASP progression toward the $2,200 long-term target, and any update on the AstraZeneca foundation model benchmarks.
The Quarter That Has to Reset the Narrative
The Pelosi halo is gone. Q3’s 37.25% earnings beat still produced a negative reaction, proving beats alone will not lift this stock. Tempus needs durable EBITDA, credible MRD ramp, and data growth that does not lean on one-time warrants. Deliver those, and the momentum conversation restarts. Miss on any leg, and the recovery from the $100 peak gets harder to argue.
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