Everyone knows Bill Gates’ Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) story. The interesting position sits one line further down the Gates Foundation Trust’s 13F: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), the yellow-iron giant most investors still file under “old economy.”
According to the most recent filing, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust holds 6,353,614 shares of CAT, valued at $3,639,794,852, with sole voting authority and no derivatives. That makes it one of the Foundation’s larger non-Microsoft, non-Berkshire equity bets. CAT is up 183% over the past year and 59% year-to-date, with shares closing at $904.59 on May 5.
The Data Center Engine Business Nobody Talks About
Power Generation is the AI tell. In Q1 2026, Power Generation revenue rose 41% to $2.817 billion, with retail sales up 48%, driven by large reciprocating engines and turbines serving data center customers. That follows Q4 2025 Power Generation sales of $3.24 billion, up 44%. Hyperscalers can’t pull megawatts out of the ground; somebody has to sell them the prime and backup power. Increasingly, that somebody is Cat.
Then there’s the software layer most people miss. Cat MineStar and Cat Command run autonomous mining trucks and remotely operated heavy equipment using AI and computer vision. Cat Connect pushes AI/ML predictive maintenance and telematics across millions of connected machines. Caterpillar both uses AI and builds the physical infrastructure that powers everyone else’s models.
The Q1 Print Backs the Thesis
Q1 2026 revenue hit $17.415 billion, up 22% year-over-year, with EPS of $5.54. Construction Industries jumped 38% to $7.161 billion. Management deployed $5.70 billion to shareholders in the quarter alone.
Solid sales and revenues growth, combined with robust order activity, demonstrate the strength of our business and our focus on solving our customers’ toughest challenges. A record backlog provides a strong foundation for continued positive momentum.
Joe Creed, CEO, Caterpillar Q1 2026
The Risks and the Crowd
It isn’t free money. Tariff-related manufacturing costs hit $710 million, and Resource Industries margins compressed 7.0 ppts to 10.0%. Dealer inventory builds raise pull-forward risk. Shares trade at a forward P/E of 37 against an analyst target of $882.94, slightly below spot. Composite sentiment is neutral at 45.12, down 19.21 points over 30 days, with r/stockmarket running very bearish at 18-19.
What the Gates Position Signals
Holding billions in CAT alongside Microsoft tells you how patient capital frames the AI build-out: own the model layer and own the diesel generator humming behind the rack. If you believe the data center capex cycle has years left, Caterpillar is the industrial-AI building block hiding in plain sight on Gates’s statement.
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