Can Nvidia Hit $300 by 2027? Here’s Why the Answer Is Yes

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) stock has cooled off from its highs, but our proprietary model still sees room to run. The path to $300 is real, and it runs through Blackwell Ultra, Vera Rubin, and the agentic AI buildout that Jensen Huang says has just begun.

Nvidia trades at $198.48 as of May 4, 2026. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for NVIDIA is $229.78 over the next 12 months, implying 15.77% upside, with a credible glide path to $300 by the end of 2027. The recommendation is buy, and the model carries 90% confidence.

Why NVDA Is Coiled Below Its Highs

NVIDIA pulled back 8.37% over the past week but remains up 11.89% over the past month, 6.43% year to date, and 73.39% over the past year. Shares sit 24% below the 52-week high of $216.82, creating a setup where mean reversion alone could close most of the gap to our target.

The Q4 FY2026 earnings report on February 25, 2026 reinforced the thesis. Revenue hit $68.13 billion, up 73.2% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.62 beating consensus by 6.58%. Data Center networking surged 263% YoY, and Q1 FY2027 guidance came in at $78.0 billion, well above the prior run rate.

The Case for $300 and Beyond

Bulls have a clean blueprint. FY2026 revenue grew 65.47% YoY to $215.94 billion, free cash flow reached $96.58 billion, and non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 75.2%. Huang says “the agentic AI inflection point has arrived” and partnerships with Meta, OpenAI (10GW), Anthropic, and CoreWeave provide multi-year visibility. The Vera Rubin platform promises a 10x reduction in inference token cost versus Blackwell.

The Wall Street consensus target sits at $269.17, with 9 Strong Buy and 48 Buy ratings against just one Sell. Our bull case 12-month finish is $239.70, with the 5-year bull scenario reaching $324. If Rubin ramps cleanly into FY2028 and EPS scales toward $9, a 33x multiple gets shares to $300 by late 2027.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case starts with China. Q1 FY2027 guidance excludes any China Data Center compute revenue due to export controls, following an earlier $4.5 billion H20 charge. Custom silicon from hyperscalers and Google TPUs remains a real competitive threat. Beta of 2.34 means drawdowns can be severe, and our bear case 12-month price is $190.76.

It should be noted that bulls would counter the China headwind by pointing to $95.2 billion in supply commitments already locked in, evidence that demand outside China is absorbing every chip TSMC can produce.

The Bottom Line

Our price target of $229.78 with a buy rating and 90% confidence reflects a stock trading well below where fundamentals justify. The tipping factor is margin durability at 75.2% while revenue still grows north of 70%. The setup looks constructive if Q1 FY2027 reports in line with the $78 billion guide, and the thesis weakens materially if Rubin slips or hyperscaler capex commentary turns cautious.

These projections assume NVIDIA continues executing on Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin while sustaining gross margins above 70%. Significant upside or downside could result from a China policy reversal, an inference architecture shift, or a hyperscaler capex pause.