XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP Hit $1.50 If BTC Clears $85K?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.40 after climbing 3% over the past week. But the rally is slowing as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) got rejected at the 200-day moving average at $82,228. BTC is holding above $81,000 and has to clear that 200-day MA before testing the $85,000 resistance.

The XRP price has been stuck between $1.30 and $1.45 since February, with $1.45 rejecting every breakout attempt. Moreso, XRP almost never rallies without Bitcoin leading first, so if BTC clears $85,000, will XRP finally hit $1.50 and hold it?

How XRP Has Moved With Bitcoin in 2026

To figure out where XRP could go next, we looked at how it reacted the last time Bitcoin broke a major level. On May 4, BTC pushed past $80,000 for the first time since January, climbing roughly 4% that day. XRP moved from $1.38 to $1.40 over the same window—about 2%, or roughly half of Bitcoin’s move. That’s the same pattern we keep seeing, and it shows how much a BTC rally typically pushes XRP up.

We zoomed out for over 30 days, and saw the same pattern play out. Bitcoin is up nearly 19% over the past month while XRP is up roughly 7% over the same period. This shows that the Bitcoin price has rallied three times as much as the XRP price.

So what does that mean with BTC around $81,000 right now? If BTC clears the 200-day MA and runs to $85,000, that’s about a 4.5% move. At half Bitcoin’s pace, XRP would gain roughly 2-3%, putting the price around $1.45-$1.46—just shy of $1.50. It’s not a guarantee, but based on how the two coins have been correlating recently, $1.45-$1.46 is the most BTC could realistically push XRP on its own.

The $1.45 Wall Standing Between XRP and $1.50

For the XRP price to  reach $1.50 and hold it, it has to break a major supply wall at $1.45. Glassnode data shows roughly 60% of XRP holders bought at an average price of $1.44-$1.45. That’s millions of those wallets have been underwater for months, waiting to break even. So, every time XRP rallies near $1.44, those holders sell into the move, and that’s why the wall has  rejected the rally attempt so far.

On March 17, when the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity, the price spiked to $1.60. However, by the end of that week, XRP slid back below $1.45 as it couldn’t hold the gains. Moreover, on April 17, Rakuten added XRP as a payment method for 44 million users in Japan, and the token broke through $1.50. Days later, XRP dropped below $1.45 again.

So, most XRP rallies since the United States and Iran war began late February have been met by the same fate: XRP rallies on big news, but there’s no follow-through buying to absorb the supply, so the price drops below $1.45 each time. A Bitcoin rally to $85K could push the rest of the market, including XRP, higher, but the XRP price will face the same resistance. 

Three Scenarios for XRP If BTC Tests $85K

So what XRP does next depends on two things: how far BTC runs, and whether the CLARITY Act markup happens before the May 21 deadline.

If BTC Clears $85K and the CLARITY Act Markup Happens

If Bitcoin clears $85,000 and the CLARITY Act markup happens before May 21, XRP could finally break $1.50 and run to $1.65-$1.70. BTC clearing $85K could push XRP past the $1.45 wall, and CLARITY Act will bring the institutional buying that would absorb the overhead supply clustered above that level. If that happens, XRP could hit $1.65-$1.70 before May ends.

If BTC Clears $85K But the CLARITY Markup Stalls

If the Bitcoin price clears $85,000, but the bill misses the May 21 markup deadline, XRP will probably tag $1.50 briefly and fade back to $1.40-$1.45. This will match what happened during the March 17 and April 17 spikes. Without the CLARITY Act, institutional buyers won’t commit much capital needed to absorb the supply around the $1.45 resistance. In such a scenario, the XRP price could range between $1.40 and $1.48 with brief rallies toward $1.50.

If BTC Fails to Hit $85K

If BTC doesn’t hit $85K, then XRP will probably remain around $1.40 or fall toward $1.35. The Bitcoin price was rejected at the 200 MA at $82,500 and has now fallen below $81,000. XRP could stay stuck between $1.30 and $1.40 if no fresh catalyst arrives to push it higher. This is the most realistic path as things stand.

Our Verdict on XRP Reaching $1.50

The Bitcoin price clearing $85,000 could push XRP to $1.50, but probably not past it. XRP needs a border market rally and the CLARITY Act markup to break out. BTC running higher could drag the rest of the market and institutional buying would come with the CLARITY Act passage. Without both, the $1.45-1.50 resistance will keep holding XRP back.

For the next few weeks, there’s two key things to watch: whether BTC closes above the 200-day MA at $82,228, and whether the CLARITY Act markup gets scheduled by May 21. If both happen, XRP could hit $1.65-$1.70 by the end of the month, and could rally above $2 by June.