Can Netflix Hit 100 Million Subscribers?

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
By Douglas A. McIntyre Published
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

Among the most important questions about the spectacular second-quarter results that Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) posted is whether it can keep up the rate of expansion. At the end of the period, Netflix had 65.55 million members, up from 62.27 million in the previous quarter and 50.05 million in the same period a year ago. At that rate, Netflix could have 100 million subscribers in less than three years. Would Wall Street be satisfied with anything less? The price of Netflix stock at $100, up 100% so far this year, points to hugely high expectations.

Revenue for the quarter reached $1.65 billion, up from $1.34 billion in the same quarter a year ago. The magnitude of Netflix’s investment in growth was evident on the bottom line. Net income was $26.3 million, down from $71 million in the year-ago quarter.

Much of the upcoming success for Netflix will arise from growth in international markets, where it already has a presence, and new ones it hopes to add, including Japan. The company management said it even has ambitions to enter China, which has the world’s largest Internet population by far. Netflix would quickly add millions of subscribers there, if the central government would allow it. If Netflix has to program for the Chinese market to gain subscribers, new customers could come at a large expense.

A subscriber base of 100 million would push Netflix annual revenue above $10 billion. One of the questions most frequently put to management is whether the company will look like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) then: huge growth, great innovation, but no profits. The question is very fair. Up against cable, satellite and other streaming services, the cost of future growth may be higher than the cost of Netflix growth so far.

If Netflix’s subscriber base does reach 100 million, it will be considered one of the most successful media distribution companies in history. However, at that future point, the issue that has been raised time and again is whether it can make money.

ALSO READ: Why David Einhorn Has a Right to Be Cynical About Netflix

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

Featured Reads

Our top personal finance-related articles today. Your wallet will thank you later.

Continue Reading

Top Gaining Stocks

CBOE Vol: 1,568,143
PSKY Vol: 12,285,993
STX Vol: 7,378,346
ORCL Vol: 26,317,675
DDOG Vol: 6,247,779

Top Losing Stocks

LKQ
LKQ Vol: 4,367,433
CLX Vol: 13,260,523
SYK Vol: 4,519,455
MHK Vol: 1,859,865
AMGN Vol: 3,818,618