There’s a reason lawmakers voted years ago to make Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, automatic. Without those yearly increases, Social Security benefits would be guaranteed to lose buying power over time.
Now, Social Security COLAs are tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. When there’s an increase in the CPI-W compared to the previous year, Social Security benefits get a boost. If there’s no increase or a decrease, Social Security benefits stay flat.
In 2026, Social Security benefits got a 2.8% COLA. But many seniors are hoping for a larger raise in 2027. Unfortunately, they may not get their way.
A larger COLA may not be in the cards
When the Social Security Administration announced that benefits would be getting a 2.8% COLA in 2026, many retirees weren’t happy. Neither was the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League, which released a statement after the COLA announcement that a 2.8% raise would hurt seniors.
The Senior Citizens League has been pushing to base COLAs on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) instead of the CPI-W, since that would more accurately capture the costs Social Security recipients face. But lawmakers have not indicated a willingness to change the COLA formula anytime soon.
Meanwhile, in March, the CPI-W increased 3.3% year over year. In both January and February, it rose 2.2% annually.
The reason the index rose more substantially in March was due to higher fuel prices that came in the wake of the Iran conflict. But even with March’s increase, 2027 COLA forecasts have not necessarily trended higher.
The Senior Citizens League, following March’s CPI-W release, said it expects a 2.8% Social Security COLA in 2027 — the same as in 2026. And while independent analyst Mary Johnson raised her 2027 Social Security COLA projection from 1.7% to 3.2% after March’s inflation report, the Senior Citizens League is clearly taking a more conservative stance — perhaps so as to not give retirees false hope.
The reality is that recent inflationary trends may be short-lived if the conflict in Iran settles down. March’s spike in the CPI-W was very clearly tied to rising oil prices. If those don’t persist, Social Security’s 2027 COLA may not be any higher than 2026’s. It could even end up coming in lower.
Social Security COLAs are based on third quarter CPI-W readings. So a March uptick may not end up having a huge impact. What will be more significant is how inflation trends in the coming months.
What seniors should expect
As of March 2026, the average Social Security retirement benefit is $2,079. If benefits get a 2.8% COLA in 2027, the typical monthly check will only rise by about $58. But that doesn’t even account for Medicare Part B.
This year, the standard monthly Part B premium rose by almost $18. Recent projections indicate that next year’s standard Part B premium could rise by another $15 to $17. If so, that would bring the average net COLA for dual enrollees down to $41 – $43, assuming benefits get a 2.8% raise.
Of course, it’s premature to bank on actual numbers, since we don’t know how inflation will trend in the coming months and also, what the exact Part B increase will entail. The takeaway for Social Security recipients, though, is not to expect a very large boost in 2027.
Where does that leave people who rely heavily on those benefits? Current COLA projections should serve as a wakeup call. Anyone struggling on Social Security alone should take steps to generate outside income, which can be achieved through part-time work.
For those who haven’t reached full retirement age and won’t by the end of the year, the 2026 Social Security earnings limit is $24,480. Beyond that, benefits can be withheld due to higher earnings. But that limit gives seniors on Social Security a lot of leeway to boost their monthly paychecks without risking unwanted consequences.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks