Within minutes of ending his campaign for a second-term in the White House, President Joe Biden publicly backed Vice President Kamala Harris to top the Democratic ticket in November. In the days since, major donors and party leaders have flooded Harris’ burgeoning campaign with endorsements and over $100 million in contributions.
Currently the sole contender for her party’s nomination, Harris’ candidacy in the general election appears imminent — but it is not guaranteed. While Harris’ term as Vice President afforded her the benefit of widespread name recognition, it has also exposed some political weaknesses that may hurt her chances on Election Day.
As Biden’s Vice President, Harris was charged with addressing the root causes of illegal immigration. Despite her efforts, the number of undocumented migrants coming across the Southern border surged to all-time highs during Biden’s presidency. Before being selected as Biden’s running mate in 2020, Harris ran a rocky campaign for the Democratic candidacy, which she ended after less than a year, citing a lack of money.
Additionally, for much of her time in the national spotlight, Harris has not been especially popular. According to survey data compiled by 538, a polling analysis research company, Harris’ approval rating as Vice President never exceeded 50%, and currently stands at just 37.8%.
In light of her background, some are questioning whether Harris offers the best chance of defeating Donald Trump in November. And while no other Democratic leader has yet challenged Harris’ campaign, several names have been circulating within the party ranks as potential options.
Using survey data from Morning Consult, a public opinion research company, 24/7 Wall St. identified the Democrats who are best positioned to defeat Trump in 2024. We reviewed the share of registered voters who would cast a ballot for each potential Democratic candidate on this list if the election were today. Potential candidates are ranked by the difference between the share of voters who would support them and the share who would support Trump. Supplemental data on approval and favorability ratings are from Morning Consult, Real Clear Politics, and 538.
In addition to Vice President Harris, the individuals on this list include seven state governors, one member of Biden’s cabinet, and one U.S. senator who caucuses with the Democrats but identifies as an independent. (Here is a look at America’s most and least popular state governors.)
It is important to note that several individuals on this list have stated they will not seek their party’s nomination, and some have already endorsed Harris. But in the rapidly evolving political landscape, much can change in the weeks before the August 7 deadline the Democratic National Committee set for selecting a nominee.
Harris’ favorable position within the party is reflected in Morning Consult’s polling results. Of the 10 politicians on this, Harris would garner the most votes if the election were held today. However, Election Day remains months away, and with the benefit of greater name recognition that a well-run campaign would provide, some potential candidates on this list may offer a better hedge against a Trump victory than Harris.
Why It Matters
After weeks of mounting pressure from within his own party, President Joe Biden announced he will not seek a second-term in the White House. With Election Day looming, the Democratic Party is scrambling to put their best possible candidate at the top of the ticket in November. While Harris is best-positioned to accept the nomination — and currently best-positioned to defeat Trump, according to polls — there are several other strong alternatives within the party, should they choose to run.
10. Maryland Governor Wes Moore
- Voters who would back Moore if election were today: 35.3%
- Voters who would back Trump over Moore: 46.6% (11.3 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 8.1%
- Voters with no opinion of Moore: 10.1%
- Moore’s latest approval rating: 60.0% among Maryland voters (13th highest of 50 state governors)
9. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
- Voters who would back Cooper if election were today: 36.1%
- Voters who would back Trump over Cooper: 46.2% (10.2 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 7.4%
- Voters with no opinion of Cooper: 10.3%
- Cooper’s latest approval rating: 52.9% among North Carolina voters (32nd highest of 50 state governors)
8. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
- Voters who would back Pritzker if election were today: 36.5%
- Voters who would back Trump over Pritzker: 46.1% (9.6 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 7.8%
- Voters with no opinion of Pritzker: 9.6%
- Pritzker’s latest approval rating: 52.5% among Illinois voters (36th highest of 50 state governors)
7. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
- Voters who would back Shapiro if election were today: 37.3%
- Voters who would back Trump over Shapiro: 46.4% (9.0 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 7.2%
- Voters with no opinion of Shapiro: 9.1%
- Shapiro’s latest approval rating: 56.1% among Pennsylvania voters (18th highest of 50 state governors)
6. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
- Voters who would back Beshear if election were today: 37.5%
- Voters who would back Trump over Beshear: 46.2% (8.7 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 7.3%
- Voters with no opinion of Beshear: 9.0%
- Beshear’s latest approval rating: 65.1% among Kentucky voters (4th highest of 50 state governors)
5. U.S. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia
- Voters who would back Manchin if election were today: 35.0%
- Voters who would back Trump over Manchin: 43.3% (8.3 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 11.3%
- Voters with no opinion of Manchin: 10.3%
- Manchin’s latest approval rating: 50.4% among West Virginia voters (31st highest of 100 U.S. senators)
4. California Governor Gavin Newsom
- Voters who would back Newsom if election were today: 39.2%
- Voters who would back Trump over Newsom: 46.9% (7.7 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 6.7%
- Voters with no opinion of Newsom: 7.2%
- Newsom’s latest approval rating: 54.2% among California voters (25th highest of 50 state governors)
3. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
- Voters who would back Whitmer if election were today: 38.8%
- Voters who would back Trump over Whitmer: 46.6% (7.7 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 7.0%
- Voters with no opinion of Whitmer: 7.6%
- Whitmer’s latest approval rating: 56.9% among Michigan voters (16th highest of 50 state governors)
2. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
- Voters who would back Buttigieg if election were today: 39.5%
- Voters who would back Trump over Buttigieg: 46.4% (7.0 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 6.6%
- Voters with no opinion of Buttigieg: 7.5%
- Buttigieg’s latest favorability rating: 39.0% among American voters
1. Vice President Kamala Harris
- Voters who would back Harris if election were today: 44.8%
- Voters who would back Trump over Harris: 46.6% (1.8 ppt. advantage)
- Voters who would back an alternative candidate: 4.5%
- Voters with no opinion of Harris: 4.0%
- Harris’s latest approval rating: 38.3% among American voters
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