What investors need to consider is that this sector remains a secular beneficiary that may have years and years more to run.
The dollar stores of today are not your dollar stores of the last two decades. The modern day “five and dime” stores are reaching up and stealing business that may have gone to Walmart, grocery stores, drugstores, and other retailers. In a world where instant price comparisons can be made even for your local in-store shopping efforts, this remains a secular boost for a consumer who remains value conscious and is likely to remain that way.
Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) shares hit a new high above $60.00 after earnings of $0.70 per share best estimates by two-cents and as sales rose 11%. Traffic rose and the transaction size rose with it. Dollar General also raised its annual earnings guidance on the lower-end of the range to $3.18 to $3.22 per share. This translates to 18.6-times earnings, which is not cheap for a retailer. It trades at 16 times next year’s expected earnings per share. Still, at $60 after a gain of more than 6% the consensus price target is above $64 and we would expect analysts to raise their price targets in the coming weeks.
Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) shares initially fell 5% after its earnings. Its stock was up almost 1% on Thursday to $55.45 late in the day against a 52-week range of $37.47 to $60.19. The consensus analyst target is up at almost $61. Dollar Tree still trades at about 20-times expected earnings, but that drops down to about 17 times next year’s consensus earnings.
Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) remains the real dud of the sector. Its shares were down almost 2% at $67.80 late in Thursday trading against a 52-week range of $54.06 to $75.29 and versus a consensus analyst price target that is just under $66. This remains the ugly duckling of the sector, but about its values? This one trades at just under 17-times current year earnings, but that current year ends next August. It trades at 15.4 times the following year’s earnings.
When you add up the market values, you will understand just how powerful today’s dollar stores are becoming. Dollar General is the king of the crop at almost $20 billion, Dollar Tree is in the middle on value and size at $12 billion in value, and Family Dollar is the dog of the lot worth almost $8 billion. Then you have to consider that 99 Cents Only was bought out at $1.6 billion back in 2011 at much lower prices for its peers. That would arguable be worth $2.5 or $3 billion if you took a straight line valuation comparison against peers. This values the big-four in dollar stores at more than $42 billion as a sector. That makes the top dollar store segment leaders one-sixth the size of Walmart and worth just over Target.
This dollar store theme is a secular trend, so any real pullbacks for the stronger companies should be viewed positively for new prospective buyers who may have missed this boat so far.
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