Why Chipotle Is Headed to New Highs, Despite Recent Fears

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is still a battleground stock for investors. Some analysts are calling for a 15% to 20% correction, while others see this stock continuing to grow. 24/7 Wall St. gave a perspective on the downside recently, now with Oppenheimer’s most recent report we can see the upside.

Oppenheimer supposed that now is the time to get long on Chipotle for a few reasons. First of all, the tough third quarter lap is transitory with fear “priced-in.” Secondly, comparable sales (comps) are poised to reaccelerate into 2016 with new drivers and a low bar. Also the valuation is now at a 22% discount to the three-year average, and the consensus earnings per share (EPS) in 2016 estimates appear conservative.

Chipotle’s best-in-class growth story remains unchanged, yet free cash flow story is surging. Ultimately, Oppenheimer believes that the bear-case for the stock to fall to the $500-range would require comps turning negative, an unlikely outcome based on the firm’s analysis.

As a result, the brokerage firm reiterated an Outperform rating with a $775 price target. According to Oppenheimer’s report:

Investors’ fear is third quarter comps turn negative against last year’s +20%. But, this toughening lap was all menu price-driven, as traffic comparisons actually ease into the third quarter and beyond. So, if traffic is positive in second quarter (7/21 release) as we expect, then 2H15 fears could prove overblown as traffic should accelerate.

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With free cash flow of nearly $600 million this year, cash on balance sheet of over $500 million and no debt, Chipotle has the fire power to much more aggressively repurchase shares. It could also ramp up Pizzeria Locale, which Oppenheimer believes is a massive growth opportunity that could be scaled quicker than expected.

Oppenheimer noted that Wall Street already models de-leverage on labor and other restaurant expenses in the second half of 2015. This, combined with conservative food margin estimates, mutes any 2015 EPS downside if comps remain positive. The consensus 2016 EPS growth estimate of 18% is conservative and would represent the lowest since 2008, according to the brokerage firm.

In terms of the valuation, Chipotle trades at 29 times forward price to earnings (P/E) (ex-cash), versus its three-year average of 37 times. Some investors believe downside is $500, but this would assume the stock trades at discount to the group or EPS numbers get dramatically reduced, neither of which Oppenheimer believes is likely.

Shares of Chipotle were up 1.2% to $620.52 Thursday morning. The 52-week trading range is $579.81 to $727.97. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $729.44.

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