Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) new flagship iPhone 17 hits stores today. Its stock is down 5% this year, compared to an increase of 12% in the S&P 500. The launch will test whether people are willing to buy the new iPhone before Apple releases its AI-powered iOS product.
Apple faces three difficult hurdles. The first is that several AI products on the market can be downloaded onto iPhones. TechCrunch reports that Google’s Gemini AI product is the most downloaded app at Apple’s App Store this month. Apple’s AI product may be crowded out because so many people already use competing products.
Apple’s next problem is whether the iPhone 17 is enough of an upgrade over the iPhone 16. One new version is super thin. For the most part, however, the primary improvements are in the camera and the chip. Most people cannot tell the difference between a slightly better camera and Apple’s current one. A faster chip also will make no difference for most buyers.
The iPhone 17’s largest challenge may not be in the United States. China is the world’s largest smartphone market. Four local companies—Huawei, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Honor—have large market shares. Each has AI features of its own.
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The iPhone has been at the top of the smartphone food chain most years since its launch in 2007. Eighteen years is a long, long time in the consumer electronics business. Each year, Samsung challenges it for first place globally. And Samsung is early to the foldable smartphone business, which many industry observers believe is key to success in smartphones in the next few years. Apple does not have one.
The iPhone 17 is a watershed product. If it does not do well, Apple will have to do something it has not done in years, if ever. In the global smartphone business, it has to fight from behind.