Tesla Sales Could Drop 100,000 This Year

By Douglas A. McIntyre Published Sep 26, 9:15AM EDT

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Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) global vehicle deliveries could be sharply lower this year.
The EV maker faces declining sales and market share in both Europe and China.

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Tesla Sales Could Drop 100,000 This Year — © Justin Sullivan / Getty Images News via Getty Images

It is far too early to forecast full-year global sales for Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction). However, an extrapolation from the first half is useful. Tesla’s global vehicle deliveries for the first half of 2025 were approximately 721,000 units, marking a decrease of about 13% compared to the first half of 2024. Globally, this represents a decline of 72,000 units over six months. If this trend continues, the annual decrease could exceed 100,000 units.

U.S. sales will improve in August and September, as people buy EVs ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit. Tesla’s U.S. sales last year were about 650,000. Through the first quarter of this year, sales were down 7%. If this trend continues, U.S. sales could decrease by about 45,000 for the year.

Tesla’s biggest challenge has been Europe. Its sales fell to just 14,831 units in August, a 22.5% decline compared to a year ago. The drop in most nations in Europe was at least that much during the first half of the year. They were 49% less across the region in April. Across the year, its sales in Europe could be down as much as 25,000 compared to 2024.

In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla sold 128,803 vehicles in China, down 4.3% from 134,607 units in the first quarter and 11.7% less than in the same quarter of last year. China is the largest electric vehicle market in the world.

Tesla does not break out sales in China. However, according to The Wall Street Journal, “Tesla’s market share has declined significantly recently; in May, Tesla sales in China dropped 30% year-on-year.” Analysts say the company sold 657,000 units in all of 2024. If May is any sign, its sales in China could decline by nearly 100,000 this year.

In 2024, Tesla sold 1.79 million vehicles, down 1.1% Based on Elon Musk’s reputation and competition from electric vehicle makers around the world, led by BYD, the number could be much worse this year.

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About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.