Q1 25 EPS
$2.15
BEAT +57.16%
Est. $1.37
Q1 25 Revenue
$3.37B
MISS 2.63%
Est. $3.46B
vs S&P Since Q1 25
+117.4%
BEATING MARKET
AA +154.3% vs S&P +36.9%
Market Reaction
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
Alcoa delivered a sharply stronger-than-expected first quarter in 2025, posting adjusted earnings of $2.15 per share against a consensus estimate of $1.37, a 57.16% beat, as surging aluminum prices and significantly lower alumina costs powered a 171%… Read more Alcoa delivered a sharply stronger-than-expected first quarter in 2025, posting adjusted earnings of $2.15 per share against a consensus estimate of $1.37, a 57.16% beat, as surging aluminum prices and significantly lower alumina costs powered a 171% sequential surge in net income to $548.00 million. Revenue of $3.37 billion rose 27.0% year over year but came in just below the $3.46 billion consensus estimate, a modest 2.63% miss attributed largely to lower shipments and timing factors. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 26% sequentially to $855.00 million, underscoring the broad-based margin improvement even as the newly enacted 25% U.S. Section 232 tariff on Canadian aluminum imports introduced roughly $20.00 million in incremental costs during the quarter. Looking ahead, management flagged sequential headwinds of $90.00 million from those tariffs and $15.00 million in San Ciprián smelter restart costs in Q2, though a favorable $165.00 million alumina cost impact is expected to cushion the blow, with full-year production guidance held unchanged across both segments.
Key Takeaways
- • Higher aluminum prices drove increased profitability
- • Net benefit from lower alumina prices improved Aluminum segment margins
- • Higher volumes and price from bauxite offtake and supply agreements
- • Non-recurrence of Q4 2024 Kwinana refinery curtailment restructuring charge of $82 million
- • Continued progress on Alumar, Brazil smelter restart
AA YoY Financials
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, source: SEC Filings
AA Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“During the first quarter, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational and capital allocation objectives, including forming the joint venture to support our San Ciprián operations and repositioning debt in Australia.”
— William F. Oplinger, Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release
AA Earnings Trends
AA vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AA EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AA Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AA Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.75% | $3.45B | +6.22% |
| FY Full Year | $3.56 | $3.77 | +6.03% | $12.83B | +1.60% |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.01 | $-0.02 | -350.00% | $3.00B | -4.27% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.51 | $0.39 | -23.72% | $3.02B | +1.89% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $1.37 | $2.15 | +57.16% | $3.37B | -2.63% |