Q3 25 EPS
$-0.02
MISS 350.00%
Est. $0.01
Q3 25 Revenue
$3.00B
MISS 4.27%
Est. $3.13B
vs S&P Since Q3 25
+68.1%
BEATING MARKET
AA +75.4% vs S&P +7.3%
Market Reaction
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Alcoa delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing on both the top and bottom lines as surging one-time charges and mounting tariff costs weighed heavily on results. The aluminum giant posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, falling short of … Read more Alcoa delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing on both the top and bottom lines as surging one-time charges and mounting tariff costs weighed heavily on results. The aluminum giant posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, falling short of the $0.01 consensus estimate by 350.00%, while revenue of $3.00 billion trailed the $3.13 billion analyst forecast by 4.27%, even as sales climbed 5.8% year over year. The quarter's defining pressure point was a $895.00 million restructuring charge tied to the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery in Australia, which, despite being partially offset by an $786.00 million gain on the Ma'aden joint venture sale, dragged adjusted EBITDA down to $270.00 million from $313.00 million in Q2. Looking ahead, management faces a further headwind in Q4, with tariff costs on Canadian aluminum imports expected to rise by approximately $50.00 million sequentially, though favorable alumina cost dynamics and the absence of asset retirement obligation charges are expected to provide roughly $80.00 million in offsetting relief for the Alumina segment.
Key Takeaways
- • Alumina production increased 4% sequentially to 2,453 kmt due to lower maintenance at Australian refineries
- • Aluminum production increased 1% sequentially to 542 kmt due to San Ciprián smelter restart progress
- • Higher aluminum prices partially offset lower alumina prices
- • Midwest premium earned on U.S. aluminum production more than offset the net unfavorable impact of Midwest premium and tariff costs on Canadian imports
- • Increased tariff costs on imported aluminum from Canada pressured results
- • Charges to increase asset retirement obligations primarily in Brazil
- • Unfavorable currency impacts weighed on sequential results
- • Year-to-date production records set at five aluminum smelters in Canada, Norway, Australia, and the U.S.
AA YoY Financials
Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024, source: SEC Filings
AA Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“During the third quarter, we continued to deliver on operational stability and the optimization of our portfolio.”
— William F. Oplinger, Q3 2025 Earnings Press Release
AA Earnings Trends
AA vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AA EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AA Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AA Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.75% | $3.45B | +6.22% |
| FY Full Year | $3.56 | $3.77 | +6.03% | $12.83B | +1.60% |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.01 | $-0.02 | -350.00% | $3.00B | -4.27% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.51 | $0.39 | -23.72% | $3.02B | +1.89% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $1.37 | $2.15 | +57.16% | $3.37B | -2.63% |