Q1 26 EPS
$N/A
Q1 26 Revenue
N/A
vs S&P Since Q1 26
-6.0%
TRAILING MARKET
AA -1.4% vs S&P +4.6%
Market Reaction
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
Alcoa delivered a strong fourth-quarter 2025 beat, posting adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share against a Wall Street consensus of $1.01, a 24.75% positive surprise, while revenue of $3.45 billion cleared estimates of $3.25 billion by 6.22%, even as … Read more Alcoa delivered a strong fourth-quarter 2025 beat, posting adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share against a Wall Street consensus of $1.01, a 24.75% positive surprise, while revenue of $3.45 billion cleared estimates of $3.25 billion by 6.22%, even as the top line fell 13.3% from a year earlier. The primary engine behind the outperformance was a sharp sequential recovery in aluminum prices combined with surging operational momentum, with adjusted EBITDA excluding special items climbing $276 million sequentially to $546 million. GAAP net income of $226 million absorbed a $144 million goodwill impairment charge and a $70 million mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares, cushioned by a $133 million tax benefit from reversing a valuation allowance on Brazilian deferred tax assets. Alcoa set annual production records at five aluminum smelters and one alumina refinery during the period. Looking ahead, the company guided 2026 aluminum production to 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons, though shares retreated as investors weighed near-term headwinds, including roughly $100 million in combined sequential EBITDA pressure in Q1 2026 from absent CO2 compensation and elevated San Ciprián restart costs.
Key Takeaways
- • Higher aluminum prices more than offsetting increased tariff costs on U.S. imports from Canada
- • Recognition of carbon dioxide compensation in Spain ($32M) and Norway ($25M)
- • Increased aluminum production from San Ciprián smelter restart progress
- • Higher alumina production at Australian refineries
- • Tax benefit from AWAB valuation allowance reversal of $133M
- • Strong cash generation of $537M from operations
AA Forward Guidance & Outlook
Alcoa expects 2026 Alumina segment production of 9.7–9.9 million metric tons and Aluminum segment production of 2.4–2.6 million metric tons, both increases from 2025. For Q1 2026, the company expects sequential unfavorable Alumina segment EBITDA impacts of $30 million from seasonal maintenance and lower bauxite offtake volumes, and unfavorable Aluminum segment EBITDA impacts of $70 million from the absence of CO2 compensation and higher San Ciprián restart costs. Q1 2026 operational tax expense is expected at $65–$75 million.
AA YoY Financials
Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, source: SEC Filings
AA Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Reflecting on 2025, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational, strategic, and capital allocation objectives, while setting numerous production records.”
— William F. Oplinger, Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release
AA Earnings Trends
AA vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AA EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AA Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AA Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.75% | $3.45B | +6.22% |
| FY Full Year | $3.56 | $3.77 | +6.03% | $12.83B | +1.60% |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.01 | $-0.02 | -350.00% | $3.00B | -4.27% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.51 | $0.39 | -23.72% | $3.02B | +1.89% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $1.37 | $2.15 | +57.16% | $3.37B | -2.63% |