Q2 25 EPS
$0.39
MISS 23.72%
Est. $0.51
Q2 25 Revenue
$3.02B
BEAT +1.89%
Est. $2.96B
vs S&P Since Q2 25
+105.3%
BEATING MARKET
AA +120.0% vs S&P +14.7%
Market Reaction
Did AA Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Alcoa delivered a mixed second quarter for 2025, falling short on the bottom line while edging past revenue expectations as tariff costs took a heavy toll on profitability. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.39, missing the $0.51 consensus estimate by 23.72%… Read more Alcoa delivered a mixed second quarter for 2025, falling short on the bottom line while edging past revenue expectations as tariff costs took a heavy toll on profitability. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.39, missing the $0.51 consensus estimate by 23.72%, even as revenue of $3.02 billion topped forecasts by 1.89% and climbed 6.6% year over year. The primary culprit was $115 million in additional costs tied to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports, a burden that helped drag adjusted EBITDA down by $542 million sequentially to $313 million. Alcoa partially offset the damage by redirecting Canadian smelter output to international customers, and strong operating cash flow of $488 million offered a measure of reassurance. Looking ahead, the company flagged an estimated $90 million sequential tariff headwind in Q3, though a roughly $100 million favorable alumina cost impact and an expected $780 million gain from the completed Ma'aden joint venture sale should provide meaningful offsets.
Key Takeaways
- • Lower alumina and aluminum prices reduced revenue and profitability sequentially
- • U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports cost approximately $115 million in Q2
- • Aluminum production increased 1% sequentially to 572,000 metric tons due to Alumar Brazil smelter restart progress
- • Alumina third-party shipments increased 4% sequentially due to timing and increased trading
- • Strong cash generation with $488 million operating cash flow, a $413 million sequential improvement
- • Midwest premium increases were more than offset by lower LME prices on aluminum
AA YoY Financials
Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024, source: SEC Filings
AA Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“In the second quarter of 2025, we continued our relentless execution on key objectives, which included progressing the sale of our interest in the joint venture with Ma'aden.”
— William F. Oplinger, Q2 2025 Earnings Press Release
AA Earnings Trends
AA vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AA EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AA Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AA Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.75% | $3.45B | +6.22% |
| FY Full Year | $3.56 | $3.77 | +6.03% | $12.83B | +1.60% |
| Q3 25 MISS | $0.01 | $-0.02 | -350.00% | $3.00B | -4.27% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.51 | $0.39 | -23.72% | $3.02B | +1.89% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $1.37 | $2.15 | +57.16% | $3.37B | -2.63% |