Q1 25 EPS
$0.02
MISS 95.09%
Est. $0.41
Q1 25 Revenue
$846.0M
BEAT +90.91%
Est. $443.1M
vs S&P Since Q1 25
+15.6%
BEATING MARKET
AGNC +52.3% vs S&P +36.7%
Market Reaction
Did AGNC Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
AGNC Investment delivered a sharply mixed first quarter, with GAAP earnings of just $0.02 per share falling well short of the $0.41 consensus estimate, a 95.09% miss, even as revenue of $846.00 million exceeded expectations by 90.91%, though that fig… Read more AGNC Investment delivered a sharply mixed first quarter, with GAAP earnings of just $0.02 per share falling well short of the $0.41 consensus estimate, a 95.09% miss, even as revenue of $846.00 million exceeded expectations by 90.91%, though that figure still represented a steep 48.6% decline year-over-year. The headline EPS shortfall was largely a GAAP artifact; on a non-GAAP basis, net spread and dollar roll income climbed to $0.44 per common share from $0.37 in Q4 2024, fueled by an improving net interest spread of 2.12% as funding costs fell faster than asset yields. Tangible book value slipped 1.9% to $8.25 per share amid Agency MBS spread widening, though including dividends the company posted a 2.4% economic return on tangible equity. CEO Peter Federico noted that post-tariff market volatility has pushed Agency MBS spreads wider, but with $6.00 billion in liquidity and leverage at 7.5x, management believes current valuations offer compelling returns on both a levered and unlevered basis going forward.
Key Takeaways
- • Net interest spread widened to 2.12% from 1.91% in Q4 2024 due to declining funding costs
- • Net spread and dollar roll income increased to $0.44 per share from $0.37 in Q4 2024
- • Cost of funds declined to 2.75% from 2.89% as repo rates dropped from 4.86% to 4.45%
- • Prepayment speeds slowed to 7.0% CPR from 9.6% in Q4 2024
- • Flight to quality drove favorable Agency MBS pricing during early Q1
- • Interest rate swap periodic income of $293 million contributed to reduced effective cost of funds
AGNC YoY Financials
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, source: SEC Filings
“In the first quarter, the prospect that potential governmental policy actions could adversely impact economic growth and accelerate inflationary pressures caused investor sentiment to turn decidedly more cautious. These concerns, in turn, initially drove a flight to high quality assets – U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgage-backed securities ('Agency MBS') and cash – from higher risk assets such as equities and corporate debt. Against this backdrop, AGNC generated a favorable economic return of 2.4% in the first quarter. Despite broader equity market declines, AGNC's total stock return with dividends reinvested for the quarter was 7.8%.”
— Peter Federico, Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release
AGNC Earnings Trends
AGNC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AGNC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AGNC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AGNC Quarterly Results
6 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 | — | $-0.17 | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 FY | — | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| FY Full Year | — | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.39 | $0.72 | +86.77% | $903.0M | +92.79% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.41 | $-0.17 | -141.33% | $830.0M | +85.53% |
| Q1 25 MISS | $0.41 | $0.02 | -95.09% | $846.0M | +90.91% |