Q2 25 EPS
$-0.17
MISS 141.33%
Est. $0.41
Q2 25 Revenue
$830.0M
BEAT +85.53%
Est. $447.4M
vs S&P Since Q2 25
+16.6%
BEATING MARKET
AGNC +31.2% vs S&P +14.6%
Market Reaction
Did AGNC Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
AGNC Investment delivered a deeply mixed second quarter for 2025, posting a net loss of $0.17 per share, missing the $0.41 consensus estimate by 141.33%, even as revenue of $830.00 million cleared Wall Street's $447.37 million forecast by 85.53%, tho… Read more AGNC Investment delivered a deeply mixed second quarter for 2025, posting a net loss of $0.17 per share, missing the $0.41 consensus estimate by 141.33%, even as revenue of $830.00 million cleared Wall Street's $447.37 million forecast by 85.53%, though that top-line figure still represented a 14.2% decline from a year earlier. The primary culprit behind the earnings shortfall was a wave of mark-to-market pressure triggered by the administration's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in early April, which widened Agency MBS spreads and contributed to $274 million in net other losses, dragging tangible book value down 5.3% to $7.81 per share. Despite the headline loss, AGNC leaned into the volatility, expanding its investment portfolio to $82.30 billion and raising $799 million through equity issuances. For investors considering the stock's forward potential, management struck an optimistic tone, pointing to historically elevated mortgage spreads and expected increases in bank participation as tailwinds heading into the back half of 2025.
Key Takeaways
- • Agency MBS spread widening during Q2 drove -1.0% economic return on tangible common equity
- • Liberation Day tariff announcement in April caused significant financial market repricing and increased interest rate volatility
- • Net spread and dollar roll income of $0.38 per share supported dividend coverage
- • Annualized net interest spread compressed to 2.01% from 2.12% in prior quarter due to higher cost of funds
- • Average cost of funds increased to 2.86% from 2.75% quarter-over-quarter
- • Net realized losses of $177 million on investment security sales and $518 million in net losses on interest rate swaps
AGNC YoY Financials
Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024, source: SEC Filings
“Following the administration's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in early April, financial markets repriced significantly to reflect greater governmental policy risk and its potentially adverse impact on the economy and monetary policy. Interest rate volatility also increased notably, and investor sentiment turned sharply negative. Although most asset class valuations retraced the April losses and ultimately increased quarter-over-quarter, Agency MBS were an exception, as spreads to benchmark rates widened moderately during the second quarter. As a result of this underperformance, AGNC's economic return for the second quarter was -1.0%.”
— Peter Federico, Q2 2025 Earnings Press Release
AGNC Earnings Trends
AGNC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AGNC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AGNC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AGNC Quarterly Results
6 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 | — | $-0.17 | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 FY | — | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| FY Full Year | — | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.39 | $0.72 | +86.77% | $903.0M | +92.79% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.41 | $-0.17 | -141.33% | $830.0M | +85.53% |
| Q1 25 MISS | $0.41 | $0.02 | -95.09% | $846.0M | +90.91% |