Q2 26 EPS
$N/A
Q2 26 Revenue
N/A
vs S&P Since Q2 26
-59.0%
TRAILING MARKET
AGNC -56.7% vs S&P +2.4%
Market Reaction
Did AGNC Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results
AGNC Investment Corp. Posted a net loss of $0.17 per share in the first quarter of 2026, as a sharp reversal in March wiped out early-quarter gains and pressured the mortgage REIT's book value. The culprit was Agency MBS spread widening driven by geo… Read more AGNC Investment Corp. Posted a net loss of $0.17 per share in the first quarter of 2026, as a sharp reversal in March wiped out early-quarter gains and pressured the mortgage REIT's book value. The culprit was Agency MBS spread widening driven by geopolitical turmoil tied to the war in Iran, which elevated volatility and overwhelmed a strong January-February performance that had benefited from an interest-rate-friendly policy environment. Tangible net book value fell 5.6% to $8.38 per share, pushing the company's economic return on tangible common equity to negative 1.6% for the quarter. Beneath the headline loss, however, core earnings improved materially, with net spread and dollar roll income rising to $0.42 per share from $0.35 the prior quarter, supported by a 25 basis point expansion in net interest spread to 2.06% as repo funding costs declined. AGNC expanded its portfolio to $94.70 billion and raised leverage modestly to 7.4x, while management expressed a constructive longer-term view, citing compelling spread valuations and the potential for government action to stabilize mortgage markets.
Key Takeaways
- • Net interest spread widened 25 basis points to 2.06% for the quarter driven by declining funding costs
- • Net spread and dollar roll income increased to $0.42 per share from $0.35 in prior quarter
- • Weighted average repo rate declined to 3.79% from 4.13% in prior quarter
- • Combined average total cost of funds decreased to 2.92% from 3.10%
- • Agency MBS spread widening in March due to Middle East geopolitical tensions drove unrealized losses
- • Net unrealized losses of $889 million on investment securities measured at fair value through net income
- • Interest rate swap periodic income of $182 million and net swap gains of $273 million partially offset losses
AGNC Forward Guidance & Outlook
Management maintains a constructive longer-term outlook for Agency MBS despite near-term challenges. Key positive catalysts include: (1) mortgage spreads widened significantly in March providing compelling absolute and relative value; (2) improved supply-demand technicals from higher mortgage rates reducing supply, increased bond fund inflows, and proposed regulatory capital changes; (3) higher rate environment increases likelihood of government action to stabilize or reduce mortgage spreads to address housing affordability; (4) potential resolution or easing of Middle East tensions could quickly revert volatility and sentiment to positive catalysts. Near-term risks center on heightened geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict and macroeconomic uncertainty affecting Fed policy.
AGNC YoY Financials
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings
“Agency MBS performance in the first quarter was driven by two divergent macroeconomic themes. In January and February, the Administration's focus on reducing interest rate volatility, maintaining mortgage spread stability, and improving housing affordability drove strong performance across the broader fixed income complex and Agency MBS specifically. This favorable investment environment was, however, quickly eclipsed in March by the war in Iran and the potential for more widespread conflict in the Middle East. The associated increase in volatility and negative shift in investor sentiment caused Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates to widen, and, as a result, AGNC's economic return on tangible common equity in the first quarter was negative 1.6%.”
— Peter Federico, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release
AGNC Earnings Trends
AGNC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
AGNC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
AGNC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
AGNC Quarterly Results
6 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 | — | $-0.17 | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 FY | — | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| FY Full Year | — | $1.47 | — | — | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.39 | $0.72 | +86.77% | $903.0M | +92.79% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.41 | $-0.17 | -141.33% | $830.0M | +85.53% |
| Q1 25 MISS | $0.41 | $0.02 | -95.09% | $846.0M | +90.91% |