Q3 25 EPS
$1.61
BEAT +14.05%
Est. $1.41
Q3 25 Revenue
$15.52B
BEAT +6.11%
Est. $14.63B
vs S&P Since Q3 25
+37.2%
BEATING MARKET
COP +44.6% vs S&P +7.4%
Market Reaction
Did COP Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
ConocoPhillips delivered a stronger-than-expected third quarter, posting adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share against a consensus estimate of $1.41, a 14.05% beat, while revenue of $15.52 billion topped expectations by 6.11% and surged 19.5% year-ove… Read more ConocoPhillips delivered a stronger-than-expected third quarter, posting adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share against a consensus estimate of $1.41, a 14.05% beat, while revenue of $15.52 billion topped expectations by 6.11% and surged 19.5% year-over-year. The outperformance was driven largely by the company's Marathon Oil acquisition and 4% organic production growth, which pushed total output to 2,399 MBOED, even as average realized prices fell 14% to $46.44 per BOE. That same earnings story carries a nuanced undertone: net income slid 17% from a year ago, weighed down by $277 million in transaction and integration costs alongside a higher effective tax rate of 41.0%. Management signaled confidence nonetheless, raising full-year production guidance to 2.38 MMBOED, announcing an 8% dividend increase to $0.84 per share, and returning over $2.20 billion to shareholders in the quarter. Looking further out, ConocoPhillips projected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, anchored by Willow and two major LNG projects nearing completion.
Key Takeaways
- • Marathon Oil acquisition contributed to increased production volumes
- • 4% organic production growth year-over-year after adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions
- • Lower realized commodity prices (14% decline to $46.44/BOE vs $54.18/BOE in Q3 2024) pressured earnings
- • Lower 48 production of 1,528 MBOED driven by Delaware Basin (686 MBOED), Eagle Ford (403 MBOED), Bakken (200 MBOED), and Midland Basin (196 MBOED)
- • Reduced operating cost guidance reflecting operational efficiency
COP YoY Financials
Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024, source: SEC Filings
“ConocoPhillips again demonstrated strong operational and financial performance in the third quarter, resulting in higher production and reduced operating cost guidance for 2025. We increased our base dividend by 8%, consistent with our goal to provide top quartile dividend growth in the S&P 500.”
— Ryan Lance, Q3 2025 Earnings Press Release
COP Earnings Trends
COP vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
COP EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
COP Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
COP Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | $1.89 | — | $16.05B | -2.14% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $1.09 | $1.02 | -6.42% | $14.19B | — |
| FY Full Year | $6.29 | $6.16 | -2.04% | $61.55B | +2.27% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $1.41 | $1.61 | +14.05% | $15.52B | +6.11% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $1.36 | $1.42 | +4.57% | $14.74B | -1.01% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $2.05 | $2.09 | +1.95% | $17.10B | +7.48% |