Q1 26 EPS
$1.89
Q1 26 Revenue
$16.05B
MISS 2.14%
Est. $16.41B
vs S&P Since Q1 26
-4.1%
TRAILING MARKET
COP -3.8% vs S&P +0.3%
Market Reaction
Did COP Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
ConocoPhillips delivered a stronger-than-expected first quarter in 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 clearing the consensus estimate of $1.69 by 11.62%, even as revenue of $16.05 billion came in 2.14% below expectations and slipped 2.5%… Read more ConocoPhillips delivered a stronger-than-expected first quarter in 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 clearing the consensus estimate of $1.69 by 11.62%, even as revenue of $16.05 billion came in 2.14% below expectations and slipped 2.5% from a year ago. The bottom-line beat came despite a meaningful headwind from commodity prices, as the company's total average realized price fell 6% year-over-year to $50.36 per BOE, compressing adjusted earnings to $2.32 billion from $2.68 billion in Q1 2025. Lower costs helped cushion the blow, while the Willow project in Alaska reached 50% completion, underscoring progress on longer-term production growth. Total production of 2,309 MBOED declined modestly on a reported basis but was nearly flat on a pro forma underlying basis. Looking ahead, ConocoPhillips set full-year 2026 production guidance at 2.30 to 2.33 MMBOED, with Qatar excluded from near-term targets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and raised capital spending guidance to $12.00 to $12.50 billion.
Key Takeaways
- • Lower realized commodity prices, particularly Permian gas prices
- • Lower production volumes partially offset by lower costs
- • 6% decline in total average realized price to $50.36 per BOE
- • Organic growth from Lower 48 offset by downtime including Middle East conflict impact on Qatar and higher Surmont royalties
COP Forward Guidance & Outlook
For Q2 2026, ConocoPhillips expects production of 2.185–2.215 MMBOED, excluding Qatar due to uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Full-year 2026 production guidance is 2.295–2.325 MMBOED, reflecting a 20 MBOED annual adjustment for Qatar and a 15 MBOED royalty rate adjustment at Surmont due to higher oil prices. Capital spending for 2026 is expected to be $12–$12.5 billion, including incremental Permian activity, with the range reflecting uncertainty around macro conditions and North Field East/South capital timing in Qatar. Operating cost guidance remains unchanged.
COP YoY Financials
Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, source: SEC Filings
“Our thoughts are with our team, partners and everyone impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.”
— Ryan Lance, Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release
COP Earnings Trends
COP vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
COP EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
COP Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
COP Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | $1.89 | — | $16.05B | -2.14% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $1.09 | $1.02 | -6.42% | $14.19B | — |
| FY Full Year | $6.29 | $6.16 | -2.04% | $61.55B | +2.27% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $1.41 | $1.61 | +14.05% | $15.52B | +6.11% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $1.36 | $1.42 | +4.57% | $14.74B | -1.01% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $2.05 | $2.09 | +1.95% | $17.10B | +7.48% |