Will the End of Fitbit Quiet Period Give the Stock a Jolt?

The IPO’s lead underwriters included Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Co-managers were Barclays, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Piper Jaffray, Raymond James, Stifel and William Blair. A total of 36.6 million shares were offered in the IPO, and the underwriters have exercised overallotment options on an additional 5.49 million shares. Of the total of more than 42 million shares, 53% were sold by the company and the rest by selling shareholders.

According to a report at Investor’s Business Daily, Baird analyst William Power issued a note to clients on July 7 initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a price target of $52. Power said:

In our recent fitness band survey, 20% of U.S. respondents currently own some sort of fitness band, and 24% plan to purchase one. Fitbit led in current market share and in purchase intent, and exhibited the strongest loyalty among existing owners.

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Analysts at RBC Capital Markets had already put an Outperform rating on the stock and price target of $45 at the end of June.

The company’s competitors include Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Jawbone, and, in some ways, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its recently released Apple Watch. The most expensive Fitbit device, the Surge, has a list price of $249.95, a full $100 lower than the least expensive Apple Watch. The cheapest Fitbit device, the Zip, retails for $59.95.

Fitbit had 85% of the U.S. market for fitness wristbands in the first quarter of this year and about a third of the global market for the devices. Research firm IDC has said that the wearable device market is set to grow from 45.7 million in 2014 to 126.1 million by 2019. Of the total market in 2015, nearly 90% will be wrist-worn wearables, or about 41 million devices.

Since July 1, Fitbit stock has traded right around $42, a share after climbing from around $33 on June 29. The IPO underwriters are virtually certain to have good things to say about the company on Tuesday, especially given the beating that Apple has taken over reportedly weak sales of the Apple Watch.

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