Toll Brothers (TOL) announced quarterly results that we just short of a disaster.The home builder’s earnings fell to $36.7 million from $174.9 million, or $1.06 a year earlier. Revenue dropped 23% to $1.17 billion. Home cancellations and signed contracts also showed sharply negative trends. The company cannot even issue guidance. The housing market it too tough to call.
The Toll Brothers news is very bad for Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW). Both recently reported drop-offs in earnings and same-store sales, but Wall St. is still holding out hope that the second half of the year may not be so bad. Don’t count on it.
Over the last six months, TOL stock is off about 3%. HD and LOW are both up around 5%. If the weak housing market continues, the shares of both big retailers are likely to fall further. And, the weakness appears to be continuing.
Douglas A. McIntyre