XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) dipped 27% in value in the first quarter, but has started Q2 on a positive note, with a modest 2% in April. XRP is hovering around $1.41 right now, and with two months left in Q2, XRP holders are wondering where the coin will trade by the end of June.
Historically, XRP has delivered an average return of 86% in Q2, which shows this quarter usually leans bullish. However, that figure is inflated by one extreme rally in 2017, with XRP closing Q2 higher in six out of the last 12 years—a 50% performance showing how unpredictable this period can be. That’s why we asked Claude where XRP will realistically trade at by the end of Q2.
XRP’s Q2 History and What It Tells Us About 2026
To understand Claude’s Q2 projection for XRP, it is important to see how XRP has performed over the last twelve years. The table below breaks down XRP’s performance in these periods.
| Year | Q2 Return |
| 2025 | +7.12% |
| 2024 | -25% |
| 2023 | -11.9% |
| 2022 | -59.4% |
| 2021 | +21.2% |
| 2020 | +0.80% |
| 2019 | +28.7% |
| 2018 | -9.10% |
| 2017 | +1,109% |
| 2016 | -9.93% |
| 2015 | +45.6% |
| 2014 | -57% |
XRP’s performance in Q2 has been driven by shock rallies and market trends. The coin didn’t move steadily across the last 12 years, and the 86% average return looks strong on paper, but is misleading, because it is inflated by the extreme 1,109% rally in 2017.
The huge spike in 2017 came from the ICO boom, exchange listings, and expectations that banks would adopt crypto assets. That momentum pushed crypto assets like Bitcoin and XRP to insane gains, but it was not sustainable—which is why it was a one-off performance. Remove that one outlier and XRP’s average Q2 return drops to roughly -6%, meaning Q2 has actually been a losing quarter for XRP more often than a winning one.
XRP’s downturn in Q2 came after market sentiment turned negative. The 57% loss in 2014 followed a broader market setback caused by regulation uncertainties, limited exchange presence, and exchange hacks. While the 9% decline in 2018 and 59% loss in 2022 came when the crypto market entered a cooling phase and was reacting to broader selling pressure. At this time, XRP battled with the SEC for regulatory clarity, which triggered faster sell-offs.
The crypto market in 2026 is now dominated by bigger players and clearer rules, which reduces the odds of another one-off performance. Plus, XRP is trading near the $1.44 and $1.45 break-even zone, where holders who bought higher are expected to exit at break-even. According to Claude, the key test is whether XRP absorbs the selling pressure that comes with its surge.
Claude AI’s XRP Price Prediction for Q2 2026
Claude’s XRP scenarios in Q2—bull, bear, and base predictions—examine several factors that could boost or affect XRP momentum before the end of June. The table below summarizes what it would take to reach each scenario.
| Case | Target (End Q2) | % Gain / Loss | Key Factors |
| Bull | $1.75–$1.82 | +25% to +30% | CLARITY Act progress and strong inflows. |
| Base | $1.45–$1.60 | +4% to +14% | Bill gets markup without a Senate vote, and moderate inflows. |
| Bear | $1.00–$1.20 | −14% to −29% | Bill delay and geopolitical tensions |
Bull Case: $1.75–$1.82
This scenario needs multiple catalysts, led by the CLARITY Act. If it clears the Senate Banking Committee before May 21 and gets a Senate vote, XRP would get the necessary boost to trade around $1.75-$1.82.
Increased ETF inflows would add to XRP’s momentum. XRP ETFs saw around $82 million in inflows in April, its highest since December 2025. The first four days of May have already seen $3.87 million in inflows, but this figure needs to go over $100 million to confirm that institutions are backing XRP’s rally. That level of demand would help XRP absorb the sell pressure at $1.44 to $1.45 and sustain its move towards $1.75-$1.82. And this could trigger a further rally to $2.
Base Case: $1.45-$1.60
The base case scenario is the most probable outcome for XRP in Q2. XRP’s price at $1.41 faces a massive sell pressure around the $1.45 break-even zone. About 36.8 billion XRP—roughly 60% of its circulating supply—is held at an average cost basis of $1.44, and many holders are expected to sell at break-even, which would increase sell pressure.
But if the Senate Banking Committee sets a markup date and XRP ETFs see moderate inflows, it could reduce the impact of break-even selling and help XRP trade above $1.45. But continued selling would likely cap gains near $1.60.
Bear Case: $1.00-$1.20
The bear case would play out if XRP catalysts stall. If the CLARITY Act’s markup does not happen before the end of May and the U.S. and Iran fail to reach peace within the 30-day window proposed by Iran, XRP’s price could lose the $1.40 level.
If this happens, the bears would take control of XRP’s momentum, pushing the coin down below the $1.30 level. Such a downturn could trigger a further decline to the $1.00 to $1.20 range.
What to Watch Next Before the End of Q2
XRP’s Q2 outlook comes down to two things. The first and time-sensitive is the progress with the CLARITY Act. A markup date in the week of May 11 would improve expectations that the bill will reach Trump’s desk soon, which would improve XRP sentiment.
The second is the Iran and U.S conflict. On Sunday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom” to help stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But this move has led to fire being exchanged in the strait, which has made peace talks fragile.
If both catalysts turn positive, XRP could reach $1.75-$1.82 and push above $2. If not, a delay or worsening tensions could drag XRP towards $1.
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