It may seem nearly impossible to believe, based on China’s poor PMI data and slowing GDP growth rate, but one expert in the People’s Republic expects economic expansion to pick up again. Outside experts, which include the IMF and OECD have recently revised downward their projections for China growth.
Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Projection Department with the State Information Center, told news service Xinhua:
The Chinese economy will expand between 7.7 percent and 7.8 percent in 2012, surpassing the 7.5 percent growth target set earlier this year
The optimism in based on the assumption that China will stimulate its own economy to balance a sharp drop in the appetite for its exported goods
The report in Xinhua adds:
As the government has adopted a series of measures, including hastening the approval of major projects, the economy will begin stabilizing in the second half, Fan said, adding that he expects such measures to play a counter-cyclical role in stimulating the economy.
The race between the effects of stimulus and the sharp downturn in the global economy is unlikely to be won by China’s policy. The demands for China manufactured goods will be and has been too badly crippled by the EU recession and extremely sharp slowdowns in the economies of the U.S., U.K, and Japan
Douglas A. McIntyre
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