Rivian Shares Down 88% in 2 Years

By Douglas A. McIntyre Published Jan 7, 8:15AM EST

Quick Read

Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock has retreated 88% since its initial public offering.
Abysmal unit sales and quarterly losses mean the share price is unlikely to recover.

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Rivian Shares Down 88% in 2 Years — © monsitj / Getty Images

When Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) went public in November 2021, its market cap surged to $100 billion and was briefly even higher. That put it well ahead of Ford and General Motors based on that yardstick. Today, its market cap is $16 billion, a fraction of those of GM and Ford. Rivian stock has dropped 88% since the initial public offering. What has brought it down are abysmal sales and a negative trend that has generally hurt electric vehicle (EV) sales outside China.

Where Rivian Stands Now

What are the chances the stock recovers?

Rivian recently produced and delivered a shockingly small number of vehicles. Last year, it produced 49,476 vehicles and delivered 51,579. The company said a parts shortage had hit its results. The matter has since been corrected.

Rivian’s lifeline has been a venture with Volkswagen, which has had its own trouble with EVs. It appeared that the partnership would be worth $5.8 billion in investment and money put into creating a joint venture. However, $3.5 billion is based on milestones. That may be why a rally in Rivian’s stock was muted after the announcement. CNBC pointed out that “Automotive history is littered with failed partnerships, Rivian and VW are still competitors, and the EV transition has proven rockier than many forecasters had expected.”

There is also the matter of Rivian’s losses. In the most recent quarter, it had revenue of $874 million and lost $1.1 billion.

During a period when EVs have sold poorly, in part due to price, Rivian’s R1S Dual sells for $82,900.

And EVs continue to hit a series of walls that have hampered sales. Much of the public worries about charging times, the number of public charging stations, range on a single charge, and tire wear. And there is evidence that batteries do not take full charge in cold weather. Furthermore, a widely held belief is that adoption will not be widespread until sticker prices for EVs drop below $25,000.

Rivian’s unit sales and its losses mean the stock price will not recover

Rivian Price Prediction and Forecast

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.