This Stock Has Already Doubled in 2026, but Is It a Buy?

Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) has surged 115% so far in 2026, and the year is not even two weeks old yet. The stock had also climbed another 12% in premarket trading this morning — before declining 5% at the market open — as investors are betting on it becoming a major player in rare earths minerals. Critical Metals focuses on developing these resources that are vital for technology and defense, yet it still lacks an operational mine and likely won’t have one for some time. 

The stock’s current run higher, though, stems from recently receiving approval to construct a pilot plant for its Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, and has added momentum from President Trump’s recent comments over acquiring the country — by force if necessary — to gain access to its vast resources.

Yet with Critical Metals still in its pre-commercialization phase, is this investor enthusiasm really warranted?  

Rare Earths Become Trump’s Priority

Rare earths have emerged as a central focus for Trump, who views them as essential for national security. These elements are key in defense applications like jet engines, missile guidance, and radar systems, not to mention industries like tech and auto that rely heavily upon them. 

Last year, the U.S. government took a stake in MP Materials (NYSE:MP) through an investment to bolster domestic production. This move escalated rhetoric on acquiring Greenland, rich in these minerals, via diplomacy or, if needed, force to prevent Russia and China from acquiring them. Trump has stated the U.S. will gain control of Greenland “one way or the other” for security reasons, preferring a deal but not ruling out military options. 

Critical Metals is advancing the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, positioning itself as a potential Western supplier. Investors are betting on this exposure, fueling the stock’s rise. The U.S. remains heavily dependent on foreign sources for rare earths, with vulnerabilities in supply chains prompting numerous policy actions. The Trump administration has secured deals across several countries to diversify supply away from China, which controls much of global refining.

Pilot Plant Approval Fuels Optimism

Critical Metals recently approved construction of a pilot plant for Tanbreez that is set to be operational by May under a turnkey contract. This step supports the project’s advancement and has contributed to the stock’s gains. The facility, designed for Arctic conditions, will aid in testing and development. 

Commercial production, however, remains distant, with initial output targeted for 2028 at 85,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides annually. The company has secured offtake agreements for 75% of planned output, with additional agreements expected to be signed in early 2026. While production itself is not slated to begin until mid-2028 — following the startup of mining operations next year — initial deliveries under these agreements could potentially begin as early as July 2027.

Additionally, Critical Metals has acquired a mobile geochemical analysis lab to support faster assay results for its 2026 drilling campaign. Recent drill results from the Fjord area confirm consistent rare earth grades, aiding resource estimates.

Enthusiasm Meets Reality Check

So, is the investor enthusiasm warranted? To a point, yes. Mining success could make Critical Metals a key player if it meets its goals, as the Tanbreez deposit contains 28.2 million metric tons of rare earths, with 27% heavy elements, though lower ore grades increase processing costs.

A U.S. acquisition of Greenland would also give Critical Metals prime access to supply U.S. needs. Even without it, Trump’s emphasis on the country has prompted NATO discussions on enhancing Arctic defenses to protect against Russian or Chinese influence, making the mine more secure.

Yet, scaling to commercial levels will take Critical Metals years. It faces delays in permitting, infrastructure buildup, and operational hurdles. Denmark has rejected U.S. threats, warning that military action would end NATO, while there is strong opposition to the U.S. using force to acquire Greenland. It could also create instability, deterring investment, as European leaders emphasize collective defense of the country.

Key Takeaway

It is notable that despite Greenland’s vast rare earths resources, they currently remain untapped. That’s due to the harsh climate, inadequate roads and ports, geological difficulties, and environmental protections. The island’s remoteness also requires local power generation and imported manpower, raising costs. That won’t change no matter who controls the country.

While Critical Metals holds promise as a long-term investment, bidding up the stock now seems premature. It would be better to wait for a pullback to reasonable levels if you wanted to take a stake.