Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) shares rocketed 32.6% higher yesterday after the company announced the first assay results from its 2025 drilling program at the Tanbreez rare-earth project in southern Greenland. The results confirmed additional high-grade intersections across the Fjord Deposit and Upper Fjord areas, building on prior drilling success. The stock has now surged approximately 158% year-to-date in 2026 as investors bet on the project’s advancement toward a pilot plant launch targeted for May.
With the U.S. actively seeking non-Chinese sources of critical minerals — and Greenland has emerged as a strategic focus — excitement is building. But is Critical Metals the rare-earth stock investors should buy at these levels?
High-Grade Results Strengthen Tanbreez’s Case
The latest assays delivered another set of strong rare-earth grades, further validating Tanbreez as one of the world’s largest and highest-grade known deposits of heavy rare-earth elements. Holes in the Fjord and Upper Fjord zones returned thick intervals of eudialyte mineralization with elevated levels of dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, and other critical elements outside China’s dominance. These results support resource expansion, potential mine-life extension beyond the current 30-plus years, and higher confidence for the upcoming definitive feasibility study. They also reinforce the simple, low-cost mechanical separation process planned, which avoids expensive chemical cracking.
On-Site Lab Acquisition Speeds 2026 Drilling
Just days before the assay release, Critical Metals closed the acquisition of a fully integrated mobile geochemical analysis laboratory for approximately $1 million. The Bromet-sourced unit can deliver complete rare-earth assay results in about 80 minutes on site, eliminating months-long delays from shipping samples to distant labs. This capability will dramatically accelerate the 2026 drilling campaign, providing real-time data to guide infill and step-out holes while reducing costs and environmental impact. The move indicates serious momentum as the company pushes toward pilot production.
Construction of the Arctic-grade pilot plant and multi-use facilities in Greenland has already begun under a turnkey contract, with completion targeted no later than May 2026. The facility will demonstrate commercial-scale processing and produce initial saleable concentrate. Full commercial production, starting at around 85,000 tonnes of rare-earth oxides annually and scalable higher, remains on track for 2028.
Solid Progress Meets Pre-Revenue Reality
Critical Metals has secured binding offtake agreements and term sheets covering roughly 75% of the planned Tanbreez output, including deals with U.S.-based Realloys, Ucore, and a Romanian joint-venture entity tied to long-term European/NATO supply security. These contracts provide strong revenue visibility once production begins.
Yet the company remains pre-revenue and reported substantial operating losses in its latest filings. Its annual 20-F report for the period ended June 30, 2025, contains a going-concern warning, noting significant working-capital deficiencies and the need for additional equity or debt financing to continue operations for the next 12 months. Critical Metals’ cash burn is also elevated as its development spending ramps up.
Beware the Run-Up
Notably, some investors are taking advantage of the run-up in Critical Metals stock. On the same day as the positive assay announcement, European Lithium — a 10% shareholder in Critical Metals — announced it would sell 5 million shares of CRML stock, with a market value of approximately $73.8 million.
The shares, acquired in February 2024 via Critical Metals merger, represent a portion of European Lithium’s stake originally received in the 2024 business combination. While the filing does not specify a reason, European Lithium has previously sold Critical Metals shares in 2025 to generate liquidity, fund operations, and support its own share buyback program.
That this proposed sale coincides with CRML’s sharp price surge suggests it may be trying to capitalize on the gains before it falls again. European Lithium also sold to an institutional investor last October 3.85 million shares, as the miner’s stock was surging to an all-time high of $32.15 per share, which then tumbled 76% over the ensuing month.
Key Takeaway
If Critical Metals successfully executes on its plan and progress continues as it has, Tanbreez could become a cornerstone Western supplier of heavy rare earths at a time when the U.S. is actively courting Greenland projects for national-security reasons. The resource is real, the grades are excellent, and offtakes are largely locked in.
However, this remains a speculative development-story stock trading on future potential rather than current cash flow. Positive assay results, while encouraging, do not eliminate execution, financing, or dilution risks ahead of the 2028 production schedule. Even with the recent positive developments, Critical Metals may still fail to cross the finish line as substantial setbacks in both mining and financing remain possible.
Despite the miner’s recent momentum, this stock is suitable only for the most risk-tolerant investors — and even then, I would not chase the stock higher at these elevated levels.
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