Tesla Still Trails the Market–by a Lot

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) stock has been up and down over the past year. It plummeted from $428 in early 2025 to $217 in April, as Elon Musk spent time trying to fix the federal government. When he convinced the market that Tesla was a robotics and artificial intelligence company, not an electric vehicle (EV) maker, the stock hit $490 a month ago. Today, it trades at $450. The share price is up 14% in the past year, while the S&P 500 is 20% higher.

Longer term, Tesla is in more significant trouble with shareholders. The stock is up 63% in five years, and the S&P 500 is up 85%. Tesla was a hot stock for years. That period is well behind it, no matter how well its robots walk and perform other human functions. Car sales disappointments have won out over a future that may or may not exist.

Musk rarely talks about Tesla vehicles anymore, unless it is to speak about its leadership in autonomous driving features. Its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) feature, he says, is the best self-driving product in the market. However, drivers need to keep their eyes on the road. The next generation of the technology is being tested. Tesla’s robotaxis have been tested in Austin and are being rolled out for tests in other cities.

Musk has also demonstrated his new Optimus robot, which he says will be available in a year. When it becomes a viable product, Musk says it will be mass-produced and priced as low as $20,000. Demonstrations of the robot show its features are still in early stages.

What Musk has not released is what the industry, and consumers, say is critical to Tesla’s future. That is a $25,000 EV that has most of the features of Tesla’s more expensive cars. The car industry says that wide EV adoption will rely on much lower prices. Tesla has also not introduced a long-range version of its cars. Lucid’s Air Grand Touring has a range of over 500 miles on a single charge. Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) may not be a viable company, but it has created a vehicle that has a range about twice that of the industry average.

Musk will need to do at least two things to get Tesla’s stock to outperform the market again. He has to build a better EV and, at the same time, deliver on the AI, self-driving, and robotics future. So far, Tesla has not proved it can do both.

Tesla Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2026–2030