XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has hit a 180-day high of 1.45 million daily transactions on the XRP Ledger. The surge in usage points to growing adoption across payments, tokenized assets, and DeFi applications. Despite the record-breaking on-chain momentum, however, the XRP price remains muted around $2.10—showing a striking gap between utility and valuation.
Historically, such gaps have preceded sharp rallies as rising demand eventually forces the market to reprice. With exchange reserves at eight-year lows and institutional inflows building through XRP ETFs, the current setup suggests XRP may be quietly preparing for its next breakout.
XRP Ledger Records 1.45 Million Daily Transactions: Highest in Six Months
On January 13, the XRP Ledger processed 1.45 million transactions in a single day, marking the highest daily count in the past 180 days. The XRP transactions record signals growing adoption and utility across the ecosystem, driven by increased usage in cross-border payments, tokenized asset transfers, and DeFi applications.
The spike follows a steady upward trend in network usage that began in late Q4 2025, coinciding with the rollout of new payment corridors via Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity platform and the integration of stablecoins like RLUSD. The XRP Ledger now processes more transactions than it did during its July 2025 price peak, when XRP briefly touched $3.65.
This transaction milestone reflects XRP usage growth across multiple verticals. From enterprise-grade payment solutions to grassroots DeFi protocols, the XRP Ledger is becoming a hub for fast, low-cost, and scalable financial activity. Yet, despite this surge in utility, the XRP price remains relatively flat at $2.10.
Why XRP Price at $2.10 Is Lagging Behind Surging Network Activity
The current divergence between the XRP price from on-chain fundamentals isn’t unprecedented, but it’s striking. But such gaps between usage and price have often preceded major price movements.
Here are factors that explain the delay this time.
Market-wide Consolidation: Bitcoin and Ethereum have both traded sideways in early 2026, creating a drag on altcoin momentum. Without a broader market breakout, the XRP price may struggle to gain traction despite strong fundamentals.
Profit-taking Pressure: After XRP’s rally to $3.65 in July 2025, many short-term holders have taken profits, creating a strong resistance around the $2.20 to $2.50 range. Without fresh catalysts, the XRP price would remain range bound, unable to breakout.
ETF Capital Rotation: The launch of XRP ETFs in late 2025 shifted capital flows toward institutional vehicles. While this increased long-term demand, it also reduced spot market volatility, muting price reactions to short-term on-chain developments.
Lagging Sentiment: Retail sentiment around XRP remains cautious, partly due to its underperformance relative to other large-cap assets. This has delayed speculative inflows that typically accompany usage-driven rallies.
Historical Pattern: When XRP Usage Leads, Price Follows
XRP has a well-documented history of lagging behind its on-chain metrics before making explosive moves. In both 2017 and 2020, spikes in transaction volume and wallet activity preceded major XRP price rallies by several weeks.
In Q3 2020, XRP’s daily transactions rose by over 40% in two months, while the price remained flat around $0.25. Then, in November, XRP surged to over $0.70 within weeks. A similar pattern occurred in late 2017, when usage metrics peaked in November and the XRP price skyrocketed from $0.30 to $3.30 by early January 2018.
This historical behavior suggests XRP’s current on-chain surge could serve as a leading indicator of a delayed price breakout. If the pattern holds, the market may be underestimating the significance of the current 1.45 million daily transaction milestone.
The nature of current XRP usage growth differs from previous cycles. This time, growth stems not from speculation or airdrop activity, but from real-world utility: cross-border payments, stablecoin transfers, and enterprise integrations. That makes the case for a sustainable rally even stronger.
XRP’s Supply Squeeze Setup: Exchange Reserves at Multi-Year Lows
Adding to the bullish case is the ongoing decline in XRP exchange reserves. According to Glassnode data, the amount of XRP held on centralized exchanges dropped from 3.76 billion tokens in October 2025 to approximately 1.6 billion by late December. This marks the lowest level since 2018, suggesting investors are increasingly moving holdings to cold storage or staking platforms.
One of the key factors driving this supply squeeze is ETF accumulation, which continues to pull large volumes of XRP off exchanges. XRP ETFs have attracted approximately $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows since their late 2025 launch, with total assets under management now approaching $1.6 billion. This capital has locked up over 780 million XRP in ETF custody.
More institutions are using qualified custodians for XRP exposure, further reducing the float on retail exchanges. Long-term holders are also showing renewed conviction, with wallet dormancy metrics rising and fewer coins being moved for sale.
This tightening of supply, combined with rising demand from network usage, creates a classic setup for a price breakout. As liquidity dries up, even modest buying pressure can have an outsized impact on the XRP price. XRP’s inflation rate remains relatively low compared to other altcoins, and the escrow release mechanism is tightly controlled, adding another layer of scarcity.
Will XRP’s On-Chain Surge Push XRP Price to $4 or Fizzle at $2.26 Support?
The key question now is whether XRP’s on-chain activity will translate into sustained price appreciation, or fizzle at key support levels. Technically, XRP faces a critical test at the $2.26 level, which has acted as a ceiling since early December 2025. A clean break above this level on strong volume could open the door to $3.00 and potentially $4.00 in the coming weeks.
In a bullish setup, continued ETF inflows averaging $300 million monthly combined with declining exchange supply could push the XRP price toward its July 2025 highs near $3.65. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has projected XRP could reach $8 by end of 2026 in his most aggressive forecast, though such targets require near-perfect execution across regulatory, adoption, and macro fronts.
At the moment, XRP remains range-bound between $2.10 and $2.40, reflecting continued consolidation as the market awaits clearer catalysts. Consensus analyst estimates cluster around the $3.00 to $3.50 range, if XRP ETF inflows continue at a steady pace. However, failure to hold the $2.26 support could lead to a retest of $2.00 or even $1.85. Macroeconomic shocks or regulatory setbacks would dampen sentiment and delay any breakout.
The combination of surging XRP on-chain activity, declining exchange reserves, and a favorable institutional backdrop makes the case for a bullish breakout increasingly compelling. But the market needs to confirm with price action above $2.26 before conviction can strengthen.
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