Chevron in Talks to Expand Venezuela Oil License as Trump Shifts Energy Policy

By William Temple Published Jan 30, 7:15AM EST

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Chevron (CVX) is negotiating to expand its Venezuela oil license to 300,000 barrels per day by March.
Chevron surged 12.3% year-to-date through January 29 despite a 26.6% year-over-year earnings decline in Q3 2025.
Chevron’s refining infrastructure is optimized for heavy crude processing, creating a margin advantage competitors cannot easily replicate.

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Chevron in Talks to Expand Venezuela Oil License as Trump Shifts Energy Policy — © alejomiranda / iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX | CVX Price Prediction) is negotiating with the Trump administration to expand its Venezuela oil license, aiming to boost exports to 300,000 barrels per day by March. The move comes as Trump pivots toward energy independence policies, creating a strategic opening for Chevron to capitalize on discounted Venezuelan heavy crude.

The stock has responded enthusiastically. Chevron surged 12.3% year-to-date through January 29, hitting a 52-week high of $174.92 earlier this week. That outpaced the broader energy sector, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) up 12.97% over the same period. The rally reflects investor confidence that expanded Venezuela operations could offset the 26.6% year-over-year earnings decline Chevron reported in Q3 2025.

Here’s the business logic: Venezuelan heavy crude trades at steep discounts to benchmark WTI, which currently hovers around $60 per barrel. Chevron’s refining infrastructure is optimized for heavy crude processing, giving it a margin advantage competitors can’t easily replicate. With oil prices stabilizing after an 18% decline from early 2025 peaks, the economics work at current levels but leave little room for error.

The Trump administration’s willingness to expand licenses marks a sharp reversal from previous sanctions policy. Energy independence rhetoric aligns with Chevron’s global expansion strategy, which also includes ongoing negotiations to acquire Lukoil’s Iraqi assets and a $1 billion-plus sale of Singapore refining operations. The company is streamlining its portfolio while adding low-cost production capacity where geopolitics allow.

Investors should watch two variables: oil price stability and regulatory follow-through. If WTI falls below $55 per barrel, Venezuelan project economics deteriorate rapidly. And if Trump’s energy policy shifts prove inconsistent, license expansions could stall. But for now, Chevron has positioned itself to profit from a rare alignment of commodity prices, refining capacity, and political opportunity.

About the Author William Temple →

I write to invest, and I invest to spend more time with nature. Usually all at the same time. I'm a retired equities guy who saw a recession or four, and lives for what comes out of the other side of them.

I cover stocks across the board cause even though I feel like I've seen it all, there's always another way out there to make, and lose money. I want to help you do more of the former, and none of the latter. Making money with friends is my oxygen.

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