Why Nebius Group Is Drawing Both Bulls and Bears After Earnings

Shares of Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) surged 14% in the past week, rebounding from a sharp 20% decline. Despite volatility, retail investor sentiment on platforms such as Reddit and X remains bullish, with an average sentiment score of 88. The AI cloud infrastructure company has captured attention following its Q4 2025 earnings report, which revealed revenue of $227.7 million (up 547% year-over-year) and its first positive Group Adjusted EBITDA of $15 million. Major partnerships with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ:META), combined with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.25 billion, have fueled optimism about Nebius’s trajectory amid the AI boom.

Reddit’s AI Infrastructure Darling Faces Scrutiny

Mentions of NBIS on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets have increased sharply, with users sharing bullish commentary about the company’s 28% stake in ClickHouse, valued at approximately $15 billion. One popular post highlighted this asset, garnering 294 upvotes and 25 comments. Users discussed how the ClickHouse stake represents an underappreciated component of NBIS’s valuation story, with one commenter noting the disconnect between the market cap and the value of this single asset alone.

NBIS ClickHouse stake discussion
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Another trader went all-in with NBIS full-port LEAPS, calling it “the most asymmetrical AI play on the market” ahead of earnings. The post detailed their conviction that NBIS offers a unique opportunity to gain exposure to AI infrastructure buildout at a fraction of the cost of established players, with the trader emphasizing the company’s partnerships with major tech firms and its aggressive capacity-expansion plans.

NBIS full port leaps
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However, the enthusiasm comes with real risks as Nebius remains unprofitable, posting a net loss of $249.6 million in Q4. The company trades at extreme valuations, with a price-to-sales ratio of 61.42x and a forward P/E of 68x. Analysts project revenue growth from $561.71 million in 2025 to $3.18 billion in 2026, a staggering 466% increase, but the company is expected to remain unprofitable with an EPS of -$2.18. This leaves little margin for error if execution falters.

Analysts See 84% Upside Despite Execution Risk

Six analysts covering Nebius maintain a “Buy” consensus, with an average price target of $152, representing 74.81% upside from the current price of approximately $84.34. The stock has gained 115% over the past year, outperforming the broader semiconductor sector. By comparison, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) rose 6.38% over the past week and 66.19% over the past year, showing NBIS’s volatility cuts both ways. For investors, the question is whether Nebius can deliver on its ambitious 2026 ARR target of $7 to $9 billion and justify sky-high multiples, or if the giant swings signal deeper concerns about sustainability in the AI infrastructure buildout.