Nebius Just Landed a $27 Billion Meta Deal. Here’s How to Play NBIS

Nebius just landed the biggest contract in its short history. Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) is surging 14% in pre-market trading after announcing a deal with Meta (NASDAQ:META) worth up to $27 billion over five years – $12 billion in dedicated capacity and up to $15 billion in additional available compute. The deal also includes one of the first large-scale deployments of NVIDIA’s new Vera Rubin AI chips.

For context: Nebius’s entire market cap sits around $25 billion. A single customer just committed to a contract that could exceed the company’s current market value.

Why Meta Chose Nebius

This isn’t a random vendor relationship. Meta has disclosed up to $135 billion in AI capex planned for this year, and they need partners who can deliver at scale, on time. Nebius proved it could, completing multi-year capacity agreements with both Microsoft ($17.4 billion to $19.4 billion through 2031) and Meta on schedule – a track record that matters when hyperscalers are racing to build AI infrastructure.

Nebius ended 2025 with 170+ MW of active power, sold out of every available rack and actively turning customers away. The Q4 revenue miss wasn’t a demand problem – it was a supply problem. The company reported $227.7 million in Q4 revenue, growing 503.6% year-over-year, with ARR ending the year at $1.25 billion, blowing past guidance of $900 million to $1.1 billion.

CEO Arkady Volozh set the stage heading into 2026:

“2025 has been a building year as we put in place the infrastructure and framework for future rapid growth. This year, we believe that we have successfully laid the foundations for an outstanding 2026 — a year that should firmly position us among the top AI cloud businesses globally. And at the same time, 2026 is still just the beginning.”

How to Think About the Stock From Here

The bull case is straightforward: Nebius has guided for $7 billion to $9 billion in ARR by end of 2026 and plans to reach over 3 GW of contracted power with 800 MW to 1 GW connected by year-end. The Meta deal anchors that trajectory. Analysts carry an average price target of $154.73, with 75% of covering analysts bullish before today’s announcement.

The bear case is real. Nebius burned $4 billion in capex in 2025 and carries $4.1 billion in convertible debt. Free cash flow came in at negative $3.664 billion for the full year. This is a company spending aggressively to build infrastructure before revenue arrives – which works until it doesn’t. Customer concentration in Microsoft and Meta is a genuine risk if either relationship frays.

The stock is up 331.6% over the past year and 34.94% year-to-date. Bulls point to the AI infrastructure buildout having years of runway and Nebius’s execution record as reasons the stock could continue higher. Bears cite the capital intensity and customer concentration risk as concerns at a $24.79 billion market cap before today’s move. The Meta deal doesn’t eliminate execution risk – it raises the stakes.