Retail Investors Bet Against Nebius Despite $19B Market Cap and Analyst Price Targets at $151

Shares of Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) have surged 182% year-to-date, climbing from $27.70 to $78.09. Yet retail investors on Reddit and X remain deeply skeptical. Social sentiment data shows bearish scores of 18 to 35 out of 100 over the past 30 days, with most activity on r/wallstreetbets.

While the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 167 percentage points and the Nasdaq 100 by 169 percentage points in 2025, retail traders are betting against further gains. 

Why Retail Traders Doubt the AI Infrastructure Story

One bullish voice on r/wallstreetbets wrote: “data center stocks are taking a beating and they feel grossly undervalued at the moment” and explained that “NBIS market cap is now barely larger than their Microsoft + Meta deals.” The post attracted just 55 upvotes, showing even bullish arguments aren’t resonating.

Picked up some March NBIS calls
by u/BiggieMoe01 in wallstreetbets

The fundamental concerns driving bearish sentiment:

• Nebius posted a net loss of $119.6 million in Q3 2025 with an operating margin of negative 89.1%
• The company trades at 52x trailing sales despite burning cash and posting negative earnings of $0.19 per share
• Revenue growth of 355% year-over-year sounds impressive, but the company generated just $146.1 million in Q3 revenue against a $19 billion market cap

These metrics explain the bearish sentiment. The valuation appears disconnected from fundamentals, even as analysts maintain unanimous buy ratings and a $151.50 price target implying 94% upside.

Outperforming Tech but Losing Retail Confidence

Nebius has crushed broader market returns in 2025, yet fell 17.17% in the past week. Institutional investors own 48.42% of shares, suggesting professional money managers see value retail traders don’t. The company secured major AI infrastructure contracts with Microsoft and Meta worth billions, but these deals haven’t translated into profitability. With $4.79 billion in cash against $4.51 billion in debt, Nebius has the balance sheet to fund expansion. Still, negative operating cash flow of $80.6 million in Q3 raises questions about sustainability while scaling infrastructure.

The key question is whether retail skepticism proves prescient or the 188% rally has further to run. The handful of retail traders buying calls earlier this year were betting on the latter, but remain a tiny minority in a sea of bearish sentiment.