Atlassian Price Prediction: Down 66%, TEAM Could Hit $185 Next

Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM | TEAM Price Prediction) has had a punishing stretch. Shares are down 53.47% year to date. Over the past year the stock has fallen 150%, a sharp retreat from a 52-week high of $242. Most analysts hold more measured views, with the Street consensus target sitting at $175.45. But Mizuho is making a specific, conviction-backed call: an Outperform rating and a $185 price target.

But can TEAM realistically reach $185 by the end of 2026?

Mizuho’s $185 TEAM Prediction

Mizuho lowered its target from $205 to $185, but the firm is clear that the revision reflects comparable multiple compression across the software sector, not any deterioration in the underlying business thesis. The core of the bull case rests on Atlassian’s restructuring, which eliminated 10% of its workforce, or roughly 1,600 employees. Mizuho expects the resulting cost savings to drive higher operating margins and accelerate the company’s path to GAAP profitability.

Key Drivers of TEAM Stock Performance

1. Restructuring savings compounding into margins. The $55.7 million in restructuring charges taken in Q1 FY26 are now lapping, and the payoff is visible. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 27% in Q2 FY26, up 1 percentage point year over year, with Q3 guided to ~27.5%. This operating leverage means more of each revenue dollar flowing toward long-term free cash flow growth.
2. Cloud momentum driving durable revenue. Atlassian posted its first-ever $1 billion Cloud revenue quarter in Q2 FY26, up 26% year over year, with cloud net revenue retention above 120% for the third consecutive quarter. Remaining performance obligations hit $3.81 billion, up 44% year over year, signaling locked-in future revenue that supports compounding returns.
3. Accelerated path to GAAP profitability. GAAP operating margin is guided to approximately 0% in Q3 FY26, a meaningful step toward breakeven after years of losses. Combined with plans to accelerate share repurchases in H2 at 2-3x the H1 pace, GAAP profitability would expand the universe of institutional buyers eligible to hold TEAM.

What Will It Take for TEAM to Reach $185?

Getting there requires three things: continued revenue growth in line with 20% raised FY26 guidance of 22% year-over-year growth, sustained non-GAAP margin expansion toward the FY27 target of greater than 25%, and a broader software sector re-rating as macro uncertainty fades.

The primary risk is that Data Center revenue growth is expected to meaningfully decelerate in FY27 as the end-of-life benefit laps, which could weigh on total revenue optics. Still, Mizuho’s conviction holds: the restructuring savings are real, the margin trajectory is improving, and Mizuho sees TEAM as having a credible path to significant long-term compounding based on these fundamentals.