Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Thomas Blakey lowered the firm’s price target on Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM | TEAM Price Prediction) to $98 from $146 and kept an Overweight rating on the shares. The price target cut reflects continued multiple compression in software while the firm’s view of the underlying business remains intact. For long-term investors, the call signals that Atlassian is caught in a sector-wide revaluation that’s also pressuring peers.
The new target sits well below where Atlassian stock traded just months ago, and the firm’s decision to keep an Overweight rating is the tell: fundamentals are intact, but the multiple investors will pay has shifted. That gap between operating performance and stock performance is the story across software right now.
| Ticker | Company | Firm | Action | Old Rating | New Rating | Old Target | New Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | Atlassian | Cantor Fitzgerald | Price target cut | Overweight | Overweight | $146 | $98 |
The Analyst’s Case
Blakey’s channel work points to continued strength in the data center to Cloud transition at Atlassian. The reset is about valuation: software names are being repriced as AI disruption fears, growth deceleration, and risk-off sentiment compress multiples across the group.
Atlassian isn’t alone amid a sector-wide share-price pullback in 2026 so far. For example, ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) shares are down 40% year to date.
Company Snapshot
Atlassian’s portfolio includes Jira, Confluence, Bitbucket, Loom, and the AI assistant Rovo. In Q2 FY26, revenue rose 23% to $1.59 billion, with Cloud crossing $1.07 billion (+26% YoY) for the first time.
Customers crossed 350,000, including 80% of the Fortune 500, and Rovo monthly active users surpassed 5 million. Atlassian’s management raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to roughly 22%.
Why the Move Matters Now
Atlassian stock is down 56% year to date and 69% over the past year, with shares recently at $71.74. The forward P/E of 13x is a sharp reset for a company growing Cloud above 25%.
The bull case rests on sticky workflows, the data-center-to-cloud migration, and AI monetization through Rovo. For more on the broader tape, see this recent 247 Wall St. market coverage.
The bear case is real: Data Center growth is expected to decelerate meaningfully in FY27 as EOL benefits lap, AI processing costs are rising, and competition from GitHub Copilot and others looms. Each of these headwinds can be managed individually, but together they justify a more cautious multiple.
What It Means for Your Portfolio
Cantor’s call is a measured one. Keeping Overweight while cutting the target says the franchise is intact even as the market repays software at a lower multiple. Atlassian CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes captured the mood, stating, “We’re building a bloody great business. I’m convinced AI is great for Atlassian.”
For retirement-focused investors, Atlassian stock may warrant a closer look at compressed levels, but position sizing should respect the volatility. Watch for whether Cloud retention stays above 120% and whether buybacks accelerate as planned. The reset could prove an entry point, though patience is the price of admission.
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