Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN) shares are up 6% in Tuesday morning trading, with shares climbing toward $5.50 as investors pile into the iBuying platform on a combination of strong earnings momentum and fresh policy tailwinds out of Washington.
The move builds on a stock that has now run 29% over the past month and is up a remarkable +371% over the past year from a low of $1.10. Today’s action looks like the market repricing a genuine turnaround story rather than just chasing momentum.
Two catalysts are converging at once, and together they are giving bulls enough confidence to push OPEN stock to its highest levels in recent months.
Earnings Beat Fuels the Base Case
The primary driver here is Opendoor’s Q4 2025 earnings report filed February 19, which delivered a meaningful revenue surprise. The company posted $736 million in revenue against a consensus estimate of $593.94 million, a beat of nearly 24%. That kind of outperformance gets attention.
Yes, the headline EPS number looked rough at -$1.26 versus the -$0.12 estimate, but that miss was almost entirely driven by a $933 million non-cash charge tied to convertible note restructuring. Strip that out and the operational picture is actually improving: Opendoor’s adjusted net loss narrowed to $62 million from $77 million a year ago.
Opendoor’s operational metrics underneath the revenue line are what really matter for a company in turnaround mode. Homes purchased jumped 46% quarter-over-quarter to 1,706. Furthermore, the average days in possession fell 23%. The share of homes sitting on the market over 120 days dropped from 51% to 33% quarter-over-quarter. These are the numbers that tell you whether the machine is actually working.
CEO Kaz Nejatian spelled out the proof point that Opendoor’s investors have been waiting for:
“Our October 2025 acquisition cohort is tracking to deliver the strongest contribution margins of any October cohort in Company history. And these homes are selling at more than twice the velocity of the October 2024 cohort, with over 50% already sold or under resale contract.”
That is not a promise about the future; rather, it’s a result already in the books. For a company that spent most of 2024 and early 2025 watching stale inventory pile up, Opendoor’s results represent a genuine inflection point.
White House Policy Adds a Second Tailwind
Layered on top of the earnings story is a fresh macro catalyst. A new White House executive order aimed at deregulating the mortgage industry and expanding credit access dropped on March 16, and Opendoor is one of the most direct beneficiaries of any policy that loosens housing affordability constraints.
The company has already been playing offense here. Opendoor recently launched a 4.99% beta mortgage program, a 30-year fixed rate meaningfully below the national average of 6.11% as of mid-March. If deregulation broadens credit access, more potential sellers can qualify for their next purchase, which directly expands Opendoor’s addressable pool of transactions.
Housing starts also provide a constructive backdrop. The most recent reading came in at 1.487 million annualized units, sitting at the 90.9th percentile of the past 12 months and within the range that signals healthy market conditions.
The Analyst Picture and What to Watch
The analyst community is cautiously warming up to OPEN stock. UBS raised its price target from $1.60 to $5 alongside the Q4 earnings print, though it maintained a neutral stance.
The Street’s consensus target sits at $4.33, which is below today’s price, so Opendoor stock is trading ahead of where most analysts are comfortable. Insider ownership stands at 14.3%, and recent insider transactions have skewed toward buying, which at least signals management confidence in the stock’s trajectory.
It’s worth noting that not everyone is convinced. Some observers have previously flagged concerns about the sustainability of this rally. A previously published piece lays out the bear case on the iBuying model in detail. Moreover, Opendoor’s forward guidance is also keeping in mind: Q1 2026 revenue is expected to decline approximately 10% quarter-over-quarter, and the company is still targeting adjusted net income breakeven by the end of 2026, not today.
Looking ahead, the prediction markets are pricing in 96.5% probability of an up day today for OPEN stock, but the same crowd assigns 57% probability of a down day on March 18. This suggests traders expect some give-back after today’s impressive share-price run for Opendoor.
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