Molson Coors Could Drop Another 3% as Barclays Slashes Target to $40 With Underweight Rating

Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP | TAP Price Prediction) has been under sustained pressure heading into 2026. Shares are down nearly 2.00%% over the past week, and more than 13% year to date. Over the past year, TAP has fallen 30.05%, well off its 52-week high of $63.50. The stock closed most recently at $41.16.

While the Street’s consensus target sits at $47.67, Barclays is taking a decidedly more cautious stance. The firm cut its price target on Molson Coors to $40 from $47, maintaining an Underweight rating. At current levels, that target implies roughly 3% additional downside from where shares trade today. But can TAP realistically reach $40 by the end of 2026?

Barclays’ $40 TAP Prediction

Barclays’ bearish call is grounded in Molson Coors’ own forward guidance. Management projected underlying EPS to decline 11% to 15% in 2026 versus 2025, with underlying income before income taxes expected to fall 15% to 18%. Compounding that, approximately $35 million in unfavorable Midwest Premium aluminum surcharges hit Q4 alone, and elevated aluminum costs are expected to remain a meaningful headwind throughout 2026.

Key Drivers of TAP Stock Performance

1. Volume Deterioration in the Americas: Americas financial volumes fell 8.5% in Q4 and U.S. brand volumes declined 5.1%, driven by industry softness and share losses in premium segments. Sustained volume erosion in the core business limits earnings recovery potential.
2. Cost Savings Program as an Offset: Management launched a three-year cost savings program targeting up to $450 million, with savings beginning in 2026. This initiative, alongside a $4 billion share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2031, provides a floor for long-term capital return.
3. Dividend Stability Amid Earnings Pressure: Molson Coors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, supported by full-year free cash flow of $1.14 billion. The 4.48% dividend yield provides income while investors wait for operational stabilization.

What Will It Take for TAP to Reach $40?

With 175.6 million shares outstanding, a $40 price target implies continued multiple compression as earnings decline, representing continued multiple compression as earnings decline. For Barclays’ target to materialize, three conditions likely apply: 2026 EPS comes in at the low end of the guided 11% to 15% decline range, aluminum cost headwinds persist beyond management’s expectations, and U.S. volume trends fail to stabilize.

The primary risk to this bearish call is a faster-than-expected resolution in Midwest Premium aluminum pricing, which management itself noted is “not reflective of longer-term performance.” Still, with 12 analysts currently rating TAP a Hold and 4 rating it a Strong Sell or Sell, Barclays’ $40 target reflects a broadly cautious Wall Street view on a stock facing structural headwinds alongside the stock’s income appeal.