A $9 trillion market cap might seem out of the question for shares of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction), especially after a major loss in court that sent the social-media juggernaut down more than 8% in a single day. It was quite an overreaction, at least in my opinion, but at a time when there are way too many “deals” across the broad markets after the week’s moment of panic.
After Thursday’s pummelling, Meta stock now boasts a market cap of $1.38 trillion. And, at this pace, it might not take all too long before the name is out of the $1 trillion club. The 30% fall from peak to trough has been incredibly painful, and it might not matter how cheap the stock looks on the surface, with investors increasingly on edge over the war in Iran and other pressures facing the AI trade.
With Meta recently targeting a $9 trillion valuation as a part of its new executive incentive program (in many ways, it’s a high long-term bar that mirrors the on ahead of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Elon Musk), questions linger as to whether the goal is realistic and, if it is, what kind of drivers can help get the stock to such unprecedented heights. After the latest setback in shares of Meta, such an ambitious target would entail a gain of more than 500% by 2031.
Could the AI opportunity really be that big?
Undoubtedly, that’s an obscenely high target, and one that might be far out of reach unless, of course, there is no AI bubble and Meta leads the charge on the race towards superintelligence. Either way, it feels like the stock has a higher chance of shedding half of its value again than doubling up, especially with the haze of uncertainty clouding the future of the AI trade. In any case, Mark Zuckerberg seems to be more than willing to move ahead with the AI opportunity with aggression, even if the market is no longer rewarding explosive long-term growth narratives.
While Meta’s legal battle is on the minds of investors, I do think that it’s worth considering the longer-term opportunities at hand while most others lose sight of AI, AGI, and the path forward for agents. Surely, Meta has no shortage of growth drivers to keep the growth going strong. Whether we’re talking about the Andromeda ad engine, which could disrupt the entire industry, there’s certainly sizeable market share gains to be had if Meta gets things right.
Add the shifting of the gears towards closed-source models (codenamed Avocado and Mango) as well as the ability to monetize said models across its family of apps, and perhaps the market is at great risk of underpricing the bull-case scenario. Meta is spending a ton on AI, and its Hyperion data center project is arguably too ambitious. If, in five years’ time, Meta ends up automating much of its workforce while continuing to advance its foundation models and getting monetization right, perhaps $9 trillion isn’t as far-fetched as it seems on the surface.
It’s an ambitious target, but Zuckerberg’s an ambitious leader
In terms of getting there by 2031, though, let’s just say I wouldn’t get my hopes up. At the same time, though, I wouldn’t bet against CEO Mark Zuckerberg, as, in many ways, he’s making bold moves to dominate the future of AI.
Indeed, it appears like he doesn’t just want to be another horse in the AI race; he wants to be at the very front of the pack. And, en route to some form of superintelligence, I do think it would be a mistake to go against Meta as the AI revolution enters its most interesting phase yet, from picks and shovels to real monetary and productivity gains.
The $9 trillion “moonshot” is definitely not impossible for Meta. It certainly has the drivers, the visionary leader, and the team in place. If the firm can achieve superintelligence sooner rather than later, I’d say the sky-high target is more of a maybe than a definite no. If I were to place a bet, though, I’d argue it could take more than a decade to see the $9 trillion market cap level be reached, especially if we’re bound to enter an “AI winter” of sorts.
If Zuckerberg can pull it off, though, he might end up becoming the world’s first trillionaire.
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