Bank of America upgraded TripAdvisor, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRIP | TRIP Price Prediction) to Buy from Neutral on Friday, raising its price target to $15 from $14, as Starboard Value’s deepening board involvement and a formal strategic review of TheFork open what the firm calls “a clearer catalyst path for value realization.”
The stock trades at $10.26, down nearly 30% year-to-date and well below BofA’s target. But shares got a bump on Friday, rising 3.17%.
| Ticker | Firm | Old Rating | New Rating | New Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRIP | Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | $15 |
The Analyst’s Case
BofA’s upgrade centers on a sum-of-the-parts argument: Viator and TheFork together could be worth more than $2.5 billion — roughly twice TripAdvisor’s current $1.3 billion enterprise value. That gap is the core of the thesis. With Starboard Value holding a 9.4% beneficial stake and now controlling four of ten board seats following a cooperation agreement reached March 22–23, the activist pressure to surface that value has moved from threat to structured governance reality.
Why the Businesses Support the Valuation
Both marketplace segments have delivered consistent margin expansion. Viator posted $294 million in Q3 2025 revenue, up 9% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 16.8% from 11.3% a year earlier. Gross bookings value reached $1.3 billion in the quarter, up 15% year-over-year, and for the full year, GBV is rapidly approaching $5 billion with repeat customers comprising the majority of volume. TheFork grew Q3 2025 revenue 28% year-over-year to $63 million, with EBITDA margin surging to 21.9% from 11.2%. For full-year 2025, TheFork generated $221 million in revenue, up 22%, with management describing it as “the only dining marketplace in Europe operating at scale across both B2B and B2C.”
TripAdvisor formally launched a strategic alternatives process for TheFork on February 12, 2026, a move CEO Matt Goldberg framed as a potential path to “creating additional capacity for meaningful capital return to shareholders.”
The Drag and the Risk
The legacy Brand Tripadvisor segment remains a structural headwind. Revenue fell 8% year-over-year in Q3 2025 to $235 million, with Hotels & Other guided to decline mid-to-high teens in 2026 as AI-driven search continues to erode hotel metasearch traffic. Q4 2025 EPS came in at $0.04 versus an expected $0.15, and the stock hit a 52-week low of $9.01 in late March. Short interest stands at 28.03 million shares, representing 32.68% of the float.
What It Means for Your Portfolio
BofA’s upgrade is fundamentally a catalyst-driven call rather than a near-term earnings story. The combination of Starboard’s structured board presence, an active TheFork sale process, and Viator’s demonstrated margin trajectory gives the thesis more concrete milestones than activist situations typically offer at this stage. The risk remains real — legacy revenue is shrinking faster than the marketplace businesses can offset it — but at $9.95 against a consensus analyst target of $14.34, the market appears to be pricing in continued deterioration with limited credit for the portfolio’s hidden value.
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