Despite HubSpot’s Big Losses, Wall Street Thinks Its a Winner This Year

HubSpot (NYSE:HUBS | HUBS Price Prediction) received a bullish vote of confidence Tuesday morning when Bank of America analyst Matt Bullock reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and a $300 price target. The call arrives after shares have fallen 64% from their 2025 highs, creating what BofA describes as “a particularly attractive entry point.”

With the stock trading near $242.55 and the analyst consensus sitting at $373.25, Bullock’s $300 target sits well below the Street average, reflecting a measured re-entry call.

The Analyst’s Case

Bullock’s thesis centers on growth reacceleration. BofA expects HubSpot to reaccelerate revenue growth to 20% this year, supported by the company’s own full-year 2026 guidance of $3.69 to $3.70 billion in revenue, representing 18% year-over-year growth. BofA also highlights gross profit margins of 84% and notes that 22 analysts have recently increased earnings estimates. The firm acknowledges AI disruption risks embedded in the current valuation but argues those existential bear cases are unlikely to be fully resolved in the near term, yet the risk-reward at current prices favors bulls.

Company Snapshot and Recent Performance

HubSpot’s most recent quarter demonstrated meaningful operating leverage. Q4 2025 revenue came in at $846.75 million, up 20.4% year-over-year, beating consensus by 2%. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.09 topped estimates of $2.99. The GAAP operating margin swung from -1.5% in Q4 2024 to +5.7% in Q4 2025, a genuine inflection. Customer count reached 288,706, up 16% year-over-year, and calculated billings grew 27% to $971.4 million. The board authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program in February 2026, signaling confidence from the board at these levels.

CEO Yamini Rangan framed the setup plainly: “Heading into 2026, we’re cementing our position as the leading agentic customer platform for scaling companies, building on our strength upmarket, and leading the new era of marketing with products and a playbook that drive growth.”

Why the Move Matters Now

The stock is down 40.74% year-to-date and trades well below its 200-day moving average of $417.97. At current prices, the forward price-to-earnings multiple compresses substantially: full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $12.38 to $12.46 implies a forward multiple of roughly 20x on a non-GAAP basis, a far more digestible valuation than the trailing multiple of 277x. Short interest has declined 18% in March, and institutional investors including Atreides Management and Danica Pension have built significant new positions in recent quarters.

What the Analyst Consensus Signals

BofA’s reinstatement adds a credible voice to a growing chorus of analysts who see the selloff as overdone. The 34 Buy-rated analysts versus just three Holds and zero Sells in the current consensus reflect broad conviction that the AI disruption fears are priced in more aggressively than the fundamentals warrant.

The real risk is that macro headwinds or competitive pressure from AI-native CRM platforms delay the growth reacceleration BofA is counting on. The strong margin trajectory and billings momentum stand against a stock that remains in a clear technical downtrend.