Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) has pulled back sharply in 2026. Shares currently trade at $112.38, and the our price target is $132.25, implying 17.68% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy, with 90% confidence.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $112.38 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $132.25 |
| Upside | +17.68% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
The stock has been punished in 2026, but the underlying business continues to compound. The 24/7 Wall St. price target reflects a business executing at a high level being repriced by macro fear, with fundamentals remaining intact.
A Steep Selloff on a Strong Business
Shopify shares are down 30.19% year-to-date and down 13.13% over the past month. The stock sits 38% below its 52-week high of $182.19 and trades near the lower end of a 52-week range of $78to $182.19. This price collapse has not been matched by operational weakness.
Fourth quarter revenue reached $3.67 billion, up 30.58% year-over-year, beating the consensus estimate by 2.34%. Free cash flow came in at $715 million with a 19% margin. Operating income grew 35.7% year-over-year.
GAAP net income declined 42.54% year-over-year, distorted by non-cash equity investment mark-to-market swings; operating income and free cash flow both expanded meaningfully.
Why Bulls See $183 and Higher
The bull case rests on compounding growth across multiple vectors. Shop Pay Gross Merchandise Volume surged 62% year-over-year in Q4 2025, and B2B GMV grew 96% in 2025, two segments still early in penetration.
International revenue expanded 36% in 2025, with Shopify operating across 175+ countries. AI commerce tools including Catalog, Sidekick, and the Universal Commerce Protocol remain in early adoption and could meaningfully lift merchant attach rates over two to three years.
39 of 52 analysts rate SHOP a Buy or Strong Buy, with the consensus price target at $159.61. The high end of analyst targets reaches $200.
Our bull case 12-month scenario points to $183.37, a 63.17% total return from current levels. That outcome requires AI monetization to accelerate, B2B to sustain near-triple-digit GMV growth, and macro stabilization.
What Could Go Wrong
The bear case centers on valuation and credit risk. At a trailing P/E of 125x and forward P/E of 63x, Shopify prices in sustained execution with no margin for error. Transaction and loan losses in Shopify Capital scaled from $58 million in Q3 2024 to $148 million in Q3 2025 as lending volumes expanded.
A credit cycle turn could compress margins faster than anticipated. Tariff-driven disruption to cross-border commerce represents an additional headwind difficult to quantify.
The net income decline of 42.54% year-over-year in Q4 2025 stems entirely from non-cash equity investment mark-to-market swings, with core operations remaining strong. Operating income grew 35.7% in the same period, and free cash flow reached $2 billion for full-year 2025. Our bear case 12-month scenario implies $113.64, essentially flat from today.
The Bottom Line: BUY at This Level
Our price target of $132.25 reflects a business with 11 consecutive quarters of 25%+ revenue growth, $2 billion in annual free cash flow, and a freshly authorized $2 billion share repurchase program being repriced by macro fear while fundamentals remain intact. At 90% confidence, this is one of the stronger buy signals our model generates.
If tariff uncertainty stabilizes and Q1 2026 revenue growth delivers on guidance of low-thirties percentage rate, the bull case strengthens materially. Accelerating lending losses or deteriorating macro conditions represent the primary risks to watch. The risk/reward profile at current prices hinges on which scenario plays out.
Shopify Price Prediction 2026 to 2030
Here is where the 24/7 Wall St. price target model projects Shopify could trade through 2030, assuming current growth trajectories and technology sector multiples compress modestly over time.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $132.25 |
| 2027 | $128.76 |
| 2028 | $155.10 |
| 2029 | $158.40 |
| 2030 | $173.91 |
These projections assume Shopify sustains revenue growth in the mid-to-high twenties percentage range and continues expanding free cash flow margins. Significant upside could result from AI commerce monetization or B2B acceleration, while deceleration in GMV growth or a credit event in Shopify Capital represents primary downside risk.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks