Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading above $73,000 on Saturday April 11 before everything fell apart. U.S. and Iran peace talks ended without a deal in Pakistan that night, and by Sunday morning Trump had announced a full U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bitcoin price dropped to around $70,000 afterwards, and oil prices surged 7%.
The emergency oil reserves that have been holding global markets together since March are running out in mid-April, and this blockade makes it even harder for the strait to reopen. As long as oil costs stay this high, Bitcoin would be stuck in the same range it’s been trapped in since the war started. The big question now is if the blockade pressures Iran into a deal or just extends the crisis—and BTC’s next move depends almost entirely on what happens at the strait.
Why Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Just Made the Oil Crisis Worse
After 21 hours of face-to-face talks in Islamabad, the two sides couldn’t agree on the one thing that mattered most: Iran’s nuclear program. VP Vance announced the failure Saturday night, and by Sunday morning Trump had posted on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy would blockade “any and all ships” entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
CENTCOM later clarified that the blockade targets ships going to and from Iranian ports specifically, and won’t stop tankers heading to non-Iranian destinations. It takes effect on Monday April 13 at 10am ET. There are now two blockades on the same waterway. Iran has been controlling who passes through since the war started on February 28, and now the U.S. is blocking traffic to Iran from the other side.
IEA chief Fatih Birol warned that April would be worse than March because the pre-war shipments that cushioned the first month have all been delivered. Oil prices have surged to over $104 per barrel, and the IEA’s emergency reserves from March are forecasted to run dry in mid-April.
Iran’s IRGC has called the blockade an “illegal act” and said any military ships approaching the strait would be treated as a ceasefire violation. The whole tension affects crypto, and especially Bitcoin, and it has turned into a standoff where both sides are actively making the oil crisis worse, which puts pressure on the market.
How the Blockade Is Hitting the Bitcoin Price
The Bitcoin price was above $73,000 for most of Saturday April 11 before the weekend turned. Vance’s confirmation that peace talks had failed pulled the price to around $71,500 that night. Then Trump’s blockade announcement on Sunday morning sent it below $71,000—with some exchanges recording a low near $70,600. The rest of the crypto market followed, with ETH dropping below $2,200, and XRP falling to $1.32.
Until now, Iran was the one restricting who could pass through the strait, and every U.S. move was aimed at getting it reopened. But now the U.S. is actively stopping ships from reaching Iranian ports too, which means both sides have their own reasons to keep traffic restricted. For Bitcoin, that’s a problem—because the one thing that would break BTC out of the $60,000 to $73,000 range is oil price dropping, and this blockade just pushed that further away.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Based on War Outcome
BTC’s next move depends almost entirely on how the war plays out, and right now there are three realistic scenarios.
Bullish Prediction: The War Ends
A full peace deal would bring oil prices back toward pre-war levels around $65 to $70 per barrel, and that would change the entire outlook for Bitcoin and the whole market. Institutional demand would return and have room to build again, as crypto will become attractive to investors once again. In that scenario, BTC could realistically push toward $100,000 and beyond by year-end.
Base Prediction: A New Deal Is Reached
Should the potential April 15 talks lead to a new agreement and the strait starts reopening, oil prices could drop below $95 again like it did when the first ceasefire was first announced. There’s roughly $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500 right now, so a sudden oil price drop would likely trigger a squeeze that sends BTC toward $75,000 to $80,000.
Bearish Prediction: The Ceasefire Breaks or Expires
The two-week ceasefire is already hanging by a thread after the talks collapsed and the blockade was announced. If it falls apart completely and oil prices rise above $110 to $120, Bitcoin would likely lose the $70,000 support. From there, BTC could slide toward $65,000, and a prolonged crisis could drag it even lower toward $55,000 to $60,000.
Is Bitcoin Going Lower From Here?
The base prediction is the most realistic outcome right now. BTC will likely stay range-bound until the next round of talks produces something tangible. A full breakdown to $65,000 is possible but would need the ceasefire to break entirely, and both sides still seem open to negotiating even after this weekend.
A full peace deal would ignite a BTC rally toward $100,000 would, but Iran’s demands—control of the strait, war reparations, and keeping its nuclear program—are too far from what the U.S. will accept for that to happen anytime soon. Until the strait reopens to full operation, the war will keep dictating Bitcoin’s price action and nothing will change unless the war finally ends.
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