Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) hit $78K on Friday April 17, its highest price since early February. For a moment, it looked like April’s rally was finally in motion. But as of early Monday April 20, the Bitcoin price is back at $75K and the whole weekend move has unwound.
So what actually happened? Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again less than 24 hours after reopening it, then walked away from the second round of peace talks in Islamabad. The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday. And the ceasefire expires Wednesday without a replacement deal in sight. Now every Bitcoin holder is asking the same thing: is this the end of the April rally, or just the pullback before the next push higher?
What Happened to Bitcoin This Weekend
On Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial shipping, and Trump said Iran had agreed to an unlimited suspension of its nuclear program. BTC briefly hit $78K, which was its highest price since early February. For a few hours, it looked like Bitcoin had finally broken above the $76K-$78K range.
However, the rally wasn’t driven by any real demand. Traders had been betting against BTC for weeks and paying a premium to hold those bets. When Iran opened the Hormuz again, all those positions got wiped out at once—$762 million in crypto liquidations, with shorts outnumbering longs nearly four to one.
Less than 24 hours later, Iran’s military shut the strait again, citing the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports that was never lifted. Then Bitcoin dropped to $76K afterwards.
Then on Sunday, Iran rejected the second round of peace talks scheduled in Islamabad, and the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship hours later. Then Bitcoin slipped to $74, but it’s back at $75K Monday morning—essentially giving back everything Friday’s squeeze added.
Why the Bitcoin Rally Was Never as Strong as It Looked
Friday was the fourth time in two months that the Bitcoin price has pushed into the $75K-$78K range and failed to hold it. The first rejection came on March 17 when BTC traded at $74K. Bitcoin then cleared $76K on April 14 before closing back below $74K. Two days after that, it got rejected at $75K again, with every attempt ending the same way.
And none of these rallies, including Friday’s, has had real buying behind it. A real rally has people actually wanting to buy in—traders taking long positions because they believe the price is going up, not because geopolitical news forced them to close losing bets.
Moreover, funding rates on BTC derivatives had been negative for 46 straight days heading into the weekend, the longest stretch since the FTX collapse. In plain terms, traders were betting against BTC so heavily that shorts were paying longs to stay in those positions.
So, when Iran opened the Hormuz, those shorts had no choice but to close, and that’s what took BTC to $78K in a single session—forced exits from losing bets. So the minute Iran reversed the Hormuz reopening, there was nothing left to hold the price up.
What Happens Next for Bitcoin?
The ceasefire expires Wednesday April 22, and there’s no deal on the table right now. Iran has rejected a second round of talks, and Trump has threatened to target Iranian civilian infrastructure if no deal gets done. So, Wednesday essentially decides everything for BTC this month.
If the ceasefire gets extended or new talks are announced, oil prices will drop toward $90 and the Bitcoin price can push back toward the $76K-$78K range. If the CLARITY Act markup also gets scheduled before month-end, $80K is realistic by the end of April.
However, if the fighting resumes and oil prices hit over $100 again, the whole market will get hit. Bitcoin has held $70K through every escalation since February, but this time it would be dealing with a broken ceasefire and collapsed talks at the same time. Our view is that Bitcoin could drop to $65K if that happens.
Is the April Bitcoin Rally Actually Over?
Bitcoin’s $78K rally is out of steam, and BTC probably won’t reclaim those highs before April ends unless the ceasefire gets extended. But zoom out and Bitcoin is in a quietly bullish spot. The biggest Bitcoin wallets accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days—the largest monthly buying spree since 2013—and exchange reserves fell to a 7-year low.
So retail is panicking on every ceasefire update, and the biggest holders are using that panic to load up more Bitcoin. So, April’s rally might be slowing, but the setup heading into May is the strongest BTC has had all year.
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