The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is pulling back first thing Monday morning, down 0.17% to 24,435 after last week’s record run. The tech-heavy index is grappling with geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, elevated oil prices, and incoming high-profile tech earnings this week, all of which are sending mixed signals. All eyes will be on tech profits in the face of rising energy costs. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tacked on nearly 7%, building on 11-straight positive trading sessions and touching on all-time high levels. The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) has been a standout performer during the market comeback, boosting sentiment with a 6.2% advance last week alone.
Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz Overhang
The Strait of Hormuz status is the dominant macro force shadowing the Nasdaq. Oil pries are up about 4% as both WTI and Brent Crude inch closer to the sensitive $100/barrel level. Iran declared the strait “completely open” on Friday, but ship traffic remained largely stalled. Around 20 vessels began sailing toward the strait Friday evening but soon halted, with some turning back, shipping firms cited unresolved concerns about sea mines and Iranian transit conditions. Oil above $100 acts as an inflation tax on consumers and compresses valuations for growth-heavy tech names that dominate the Nasdaq.
Tesla Earnings Wednesday: The Week’s Centerpiece
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) reports Q1 2026 earnings after market close on April 22, just two days away. Shares closed Friday near $401, up 3% on the session and 15% over the prior week. The enthusiasm has a catalyst: CEO Elon Musk announced Tesla completed the “tape out” for its AI5 chip, designed for EVs, training clusters, and Optimus robots. Prediction market traders are less sanguine, pricing in a 66% probability that Tesla misses quarterly earnings expectations. Tesla’s most recent quarter showed vehicle deliveries of 418,227 units, down 16% year over year, with tariff exposure and trade barriers listed as key risks.
SanDisk Joins the Nasdaq-100 Today
SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) officially enters the Nasdaq-100 today, forcing passive rebalancing across index-tracking funds including the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ). The inclusion follows a blowout quarter in which SanDisk posted revenue of $3.025 billion, up 61% year over year, with EPS of $6.20 beating estimates of $3.54 by roughly 75%. AI infrastructure demand from hyperscalers is driving the NAND storage boom underpinning SanDisk’s results.
MicroStrategy Doubles Down on Bitcoin
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) acquired 34,164 Bitcoin last week at approximately $74,400 per coin, spending roughly $2.5 billion, bringing total holdings to 815,061 Bitcoin, or about about 4% of all Bitcoin that can ever exist. Bitcoin is consolidating near nearly $75,400 Monday morning after spiking to nearly $78,400 last week. The VIX sits near 18, well off the late-March peak of 31, suggesting fear has receded even as macro risks linger.
Tesla reports Wednesday, IBM and Lam Research follow the same evening, and the Strait of Hormuz remains the wildcard that could reprice energy costs and inflation expectations overnight. Sustained oil above $100 is the most direct threat to the tech valuations holding this index up.
Looking Ahead
Retail sales data Tuesday and University of Michigan sentiment readings Friday will clarify how consumers are holding up.
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