Jim Cramer Says Rivian Is ‘Going to Make It.’ Here’s Why Wall Street Disagrees.

Jim Cramer offered a notable shift on Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction), telling viewers, “It looks like they’re going to make it.” He has spent recent Mad Money episodes warning that the data center buildout is sucking every dollar out of the room and that anything outside artificial intelligence (AI) is hard to own right now. For him to single out an unprofitable electric vehicle (EV) maker as a survivor is significant.

Retirement investors should weigh both sides before nodding along.

The Bull Case Cramer Is Pointing At

Rivian’s Q4 2025 results, filed February 12, 2026, gave the bulls real ammunition. The company posted $1.29 billion in quarterly revenue, beating estimates, and recorded $120 million in gross profit. Full-year 2025 gross profit reached $144 million, marking the company’s first full year in the black at the gross line.

Software and services revenue, fueled by the Volkswagen Group joint venture, surged 109% to $447 million in Q4. CEO R.J. Scaringe said in the earnings press release, “In 2025 we focused on execution as we laid the foundation for dramatically scaling our business.” Management guided 2026 deliveries to 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, with first R2 customer shipments targeted for Q2 2026.

Why Wall Street Is Less Convinced

The bear case rests on cash burn and demand. Q4 free cash flow was −$1.144 billion, cash and equivalents fell 32.4% year over year to $3.579 billion, and automotive segment revenue dropped 45% to $839 million as regulatory credit sales collapsed from $299 million to $29 million. The 2026 outlook calls for adjusted EBITDA of −$2.10 billion to −$1.80 billion on capex of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion.

UBS downgraded Rivian to Sell in January 2026 with a $15 price target, and Barron’s ran a “Sell Rivian Stock” piece citing AI/autonomy concerns. Analysts’ current consensus reflects the split: 26 analysts cover the stock, with an $18.16 target price and a roughly even Buy/Hold/Sell mix.

Shares closed at $16.52 on April 24, 2026, leaving the stock down 16.2% year to date and 83.6% below the November 2021 peak of $100.73. Polymarket traders currently assign a 31% probability to a Rivian bankruptcy announcement before 2027.

What to Watch

Cramer’s call and the bear case can both be right for a while, but the entire thesis hinges on the R2 ramp executing on schedule in Q2 2026, which is happening now. First customer shipments are targeted for this quarter, and any meaningful production delay would force another financing conversation against a $3.579 billion cash balance burning at multibillion-dollar annual rates. Investors evaluating Rivian should track R2 weekly build rates, regulatory credit replacement, and Volkswagen joint venture milestones on the company’s investor relations site.