The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) heads into Monday’s open at record territory but is kicking off the week on a cautious note, down 0.18% at the open. Mideast peace talks have slowed, and the oil price is back in $100/barrel territory. As a result, investors are returning to the sidelines amid a bevy of events including new AI partnership announcements, the heaviest big-tech earnings week of the year, and a renewed oil shock from unraveling U.S.-Iran peace talks all hitting the tape at once. With last week’s gains that catapulted the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) higher, the index has widened its YTD gains to 6.7%.
In the latest AI developments, Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) has reportedly secured a new chip partnership with OpenAI. The venture pairs Qualcomm with Taiwan’s MediaTek on development, while China’s Luxshare takes on co-design and production duties. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo anticipates the smartphone-focused AI chip will enter mass production by 2028. Qualcomm stock is soaring on the news, up 5%. Separately, Nvidia (Nasdaq; NVDA) has recaptured the $5-trillion market cap level with shares trading back up the psychologically sensitive $200-per-share level.
AI deals keep fueling the bid
Qualcomm isn’t the only company clinching AI deals. Johnson Controls announced an acquisition of New York-based Nantum AI for energy optimization, and Omnicom expanded its agentic AI partnership with Adobe. Per Wall Street strategists, hyperscaler infrastructure spending is projected at $650 billion this year, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index recently extending a 18-session winning streak.
The week tech investors have been waiting for
Five members of the Magnificent Seven report Q1 results in the next four sessions: Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), and Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) on Wednesday, with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) on Thursday. These prints will determine whether AI capex is converting to actual ROI. Verizon kicked off the week with $34.4 billion in revenue, up 2.9% year over year while missing expectations, a reminder that the bar is high.
Oil shock meets risk-on tape
WTI crude sits at $91 per barrel after a 6% daily jump, with Brent briefly topping $108 after President Trump canceled envoy travel for Iran negotiations. Goldman Sachs raised its late-2026 Brent forecast to $90 from $80 as Persian Gulf disruptions persist. That equities remain near records tells you AI commercialization is, in the words of one analyst, “winning convincingly” against the energy headwind.
What it means for your portfolio
The Nasdaq’s 42% one-year gain has outpaced the S&P 500’s 31% and the Russell 2000’s 43%. The VIX at 19 and the 10-year Treasury at 4.3% signal a calm backdrop. A hot oil print plus a soft hyperscaler capex guide could shift that fast.
What to watch this week
Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday set the tone. Beyond earnings, watch crude’s reaction to any Hormuz headlines and the Fed decision featuring Jerome Powell’s “farewell” comments, which could reset rate expectations into summer.
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