The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is holding its breath as the Fed prepares to deliver its latest rate decision this afternoon in what will be remembered as Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting as Chairman before Kevin Warsh is expected to take the reins. Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings are gearing up, with Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL), Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) all reporting after the bell, with OpenAI’s growth concerns expected to dominate the conversation. With all of these forces swirling, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is on pace to tack on 8.4% for the month of April and is up 4% YTD.
Brent crude briefly punched above $115 a barrel while WTI topped $103, as traders priced in escalating shipping disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz. On the economic front, U.S. core capital goods orders posted their strongest monthly advance since 2020, climbing 3.3% in March after a revised 1.6% gain in February, a sign that corporate investment appetite remains robust. Broader durable goods orders added 0.8% on the month, with upside spread across communications equipment, electrical hardware, vehicles, and military aircraft. Shipments data, a key input for GDP calculations, also showed renewed strength, rising 0.5% overall and accelerating to 1.2% when aircraft are stripped out.
Three catalysts colliding at once
The Fed announces its rate decision this afternoon with the target rate at 3.75%, unchanged since January 1. The leadership transition is the bigger story: the Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Jerome Powell after his term ends May 15. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.35% sits in the 77th percentile of its one-year range, signaling bond traders are not pricing in dovish surprises.
Oil is the second engine. WTI crude is trading near $104, up almost $4 on the session, and Brent briefly topped $115 per barrel. The move traces back to shipping disruption concerns through the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE’s shock decision to quit OPEC, with stalled U.S. and Iran peace talks compounding the risk premium. WTI now sits in the 89th percentile of its 12-month range, a level that historically lifts energy index weights while pressuring transports and consumer discretionary.
The third catalyst hits after the close. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all report tonight, with Apple on Thursday. Amazon guided Q1 net sales between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion, and AWS posted its fastest growth in 13 quarters at 24% last quarter. AI hyperscalers are projected to spend $650 billion in capex by 2026, with Amazon accounting for $200 billion of that, which is why free cash flow commentary will matter as much as the top line.
Market Movers
Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) reported Taco Bell delivered 8% same-store sales growth in Q1 — well ahead of the broader quick-service restaurant industry — with US system sales jumping 10% year-over-year. The chain also expanded its footprint to more than 9,000 locations.
Beijing has halted new autonomous vehicle licensing after dozens of Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxis abruptly shut down in Wuhan last month, stranding riders and snarling traffic. The move puts the brakes on China’s fast-growing AV sector.
SoFi Tech (Nasdaq: SOFI) posted Q1 revenue of $1.09B, clearing the $1.05B consensus, with EPS of $0.12 in line with expectations. The fintech also added 1.1 million new members, pushing its total user base to 14.7 million.
Visa (NYSE: V) processed $14.2 trillion in payment volume over the past year, a staggering leap from the $5.7 trillion it handled ten years ago — underscoring the relentless global shift away from cash.
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